Liberty vs Jacksonville State Prediction 3/15/25 College Basketball Picks Today
Jacksonville State (21-11) vs. Liberty (27-6)
March 15, 2025 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Liberty -6.5; Over/Under: 130.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks and the Liberty Flames meet Saturday in Conference USA Tournament college basketball action from Von Braun Center. Here’s a Liberty vs Jacksonville State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Liberty vs Jacksonville State pick.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview
The Gamecocks have had a couple of spotty stretches in the record column so far this year, but overall they’re doing pretty well. Jacksonville State did open up on a shaky 9-7 run though, taking losses to Air Force, Toledo, James Madison, South Alabama, Missouri, Kennesaw State and Middle Tennessee in that time. The Gamecocks would beat LA Tech, Sam Houston, UTEP, New Mexico State, FIU, Liberty, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky in the next eight, then finished off the regular season with a 3-4 run including losses to Sam Houston, New Mexico State, Liberty and Kennesaw State. The wins in that time were over LA Tech, UTEP and FIU. The Gamecocks have since beaten FIU and Middle Tennessee in tournament play, giving the team an overall record of 21-11 through 32 games this year.
On Friday versus Middle Tennessee, the Gamecocks took a 35-35 tie into the second half and eventually took the tight win 70-68. Quel’Ron House was the team’s leading scorer with his 20 points, two assists, two steals and two rebounds.
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Liberty Flames Betting Preview
Over on the Liberty side, they had a brief run of spotty play back in early January, but aside from that they’re doing great this year. The Flames kicked things off on a very nice 12-1 run through their first 13 outings, falling to only Florida Atlantic (in overtime) back on November 16 during that time. Liberty would hit a 2-3 stretch over the next five though, beating Middle Tennessee and Sam Houston amid losses to Western Kentucky, LA Tech and UTEP. Since then Liberty has just two losses versus Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State. Otherwise it’s been wins over New Mexico State, FIU, Kennesaw State, LA Tech, Sam Houston, New Mexico State, UTEP, FIU, Jacksonville State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, UTEP and Kennesaw State again. That gives the Flames a 27-6 overall record across 33 games this year so far.
Matched up against Kennesaw State in conference tournament play on Friday, the Flames were in trouble at the break with a 40-31 deficit. Liberty clawed their way back during the second half on a 50-39 advantage and took the eventual victory in thrilling fashion 81-79. Leading the team in the comeback win was Kaden Metheny with 24 points, three rebounds and two assists. Colin Porter added 15 points with five assists, while Taelon Peter led the bench scoring on 11 points with six boards and two assists in 30 minutes of work. Zach Cleveland chipped in 11 points with six assists and four boards in a starting role as well.
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Liberty has won each of its last nine night games.
- Jacksonville State has lost five of its last six night games played at neutral venues.
- Liberty has won the first half in six of its last seven games against the Conference USA.
Why the Jacksonville State Gamecocks will win
- Jacksonville State has won each of its last three games played at neutral venues.
- Jacksonville State has won the first half in four of its last five night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
Total Points Facts
- Fifteen of Jacksonville State’s last 16 games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 132+ points.
- Each of Liberty’s last five games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 141+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Liberty ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point percentage this season (27.6%).
- Liberty ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent assists per game this season (9.3).
- Jacksonville State ranks 360th among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (8.7).
- Jacksonville State ranks 29th among Division 1 teams for rebounds per game this season (38.7).
Liberty vs Jacksonville State Prediction
I’m probably going with Liberty. The Flames had a scare against Kennesaw State on Friday though, so they’ll need to be sharper in this matchup. In the game versus the Owls, Liberty eventually shot well from the field (50.9 percent) and 3-point range (14-of-32 for 43.8 percent) alongside just seven turnovers. That said, the Flames also went just 11-of-20 (55 percent) from the line and got outmuscled on the boards 35-29. That’s not going to cut it in the postseason. That said, Liberty has been scoring great over their last five outings with 80 or more points in each. The Flames went 4-1 during that stretch.
These teams split the season series with the home teams taking a win each time. Jacksonville State won 72-61 on February 1, and Liberty returned the favor on February 27 by a score of 59-55. In that latest matchup the Flames had a 31-16 halftime lead but faded in the second. There’s plenty to clean up in this game, but it’s a great opportunity for Liberty to bounce back with a nice performance.
