Louisville vs SMU Prediction 1/31/26 College Basketball Picks Today

The SMU Mustangs and the Louisville Cardinals meet Saturday in college basketball action from KFC Yum! Center. Here’s a Louisville vs SMU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Louisville vs SMU pick.

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

SMU kicked off the season with a great run, winning each of their first eight games out of the gate. The Mustangs would fall to Vanderbilt and LSU in the next three, and they’ve since gone 6-3 over the last nine. The wins in that time have come courtesy of Central Arkansas, Cal State Fullerton, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Florida State. Over the first 20 games of the year that gives the Mustangs a 15-5 overall record in the books.

In the Florida State game last weekend the Mustangs entered the second half with a pretty comfortable 46-34 advantage. SMU was outscored 46-37 the rest of the way, but eventually held on for a wild 83-80 victory in their home confines. Jaron Pierre bagged 28 points with five rebounds in that one and BJ Edwards added 19 points with nine rebounds and five assists.

Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview

Over on the Louisville side, they managed to win eleven of their first 13 games, taking out South Carolina State, Jackson State, Kentucky, Ohio, Cincinnati, Eastern Michigan, NJIT, Indiana, Memphis, Montana and California in that time. It’s been a 3-4 run since then however, as the Cardinals have fallen to Stanford, Duke, Virginia and Duke again in that stretch. That gives Louisville a 14-6 record in their first 20 outings.

In the Duke rematch on the road Monday, the Cardinals were in trouble by halftime sporting a 10-point deficit by a score of 38-28. Things got even worse in the second half as Louisville fell further behind on a 45-24 run and ultimately lost in the end 83-52 in blowout fashion. Ryan Conwell posted 18 points with three rebounds and three assists in the defeat while J’Vonne Hadley had 11 points and five rebounds in 30 minutes of work.

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• Louisville has won each of its last 32 games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team at KFC Yum! Center.
• SMU has lost 14 of its last 15 games against AP-ranked opponents.
• Louisville has won the first half in 18 of its last 19 games at KFC Yum! Center against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
• Louisville has lost four of its last five day games at KFC Yum! Center following a road loss.
• SMU has won the first half in three of its last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Louisville’s last 15 games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 160 or fewer points.
• Nine of SMU’s last 10 day games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 163 or fewer points.

Louisville vs SMU Prediction

I’ll lean toward SMU, but you could make a case either way. The Mustangs shot fairly well (44.4 percent) in their narrow home win over Florida State last weekend. That said, SMU also got out-rebounded 38-36 and had a 38-28 deficit on points in the paint during the tight three-point victory. Still, it goes down as a win and the Mustangs have taken victories in three of the last four. They’ve scored 68 or more points in every game so far this season as well.

As for Louisville, they ran into a brick wall on the road against Duke this week. The Cardinals shot just 29.6 percent from the field with a 44-21 rebounding deficit and an ugly 42-10 disadvantage on points in the paint. Louisville gave up 50.8 percent shooting on the other side in a pretty hopeless endeavor. The Cards are 2-2 in their last four games but they’ve scored 70 or more points in three of those. They’ll need some offense here as well.