Louisville vs South Florida Prediction 3/19/26 College Basketball Picks Today
South Florida (25-8) vs. Louisville (23-10)
March 19, 2026 1:30 pm EDT
The Line: Louisville -4.5; Over/Under: 165.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The South Florida Bulls and the Louisville Cardinals meet Thursday in NCAA Tournament First Round college basketball action from KeyBank Center in Buffalo. Here’s a Louisville vs. South Florida prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Louisville vs. South Florida pick.
South Florida Bulls Betting Preview
The Bulls opened up their year on an 11-6 record, then began a 3-2 run in the middle of January. The wins in that time were over UAB, Florida Atlantic and Tulane. Since then the Bulls have been on a tear, taking out UTSA, Tulsa, Wichita State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, Rice, Tulane, Memphis, Charlotte (twice) and Wichita State in succession. That gives South Florida a 25-8 overall record.
In the Wichita State matchup on Sunday, the Bulls entered the locker room at halftime with a 33-26 lead on the scoreboard. South Florida hit a 37-29 run the rest of the way, cruising to the victory (and the AAC Tournament championship) 70-55. Tops in scoring was Wes Enis with 19 points, four rebounds and three steals. Izaiyah Nelson added 13 points with six rebounds, three steals and two blocks.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
Over on the Cardinals’ side, they managed to post a 14-6 run in their first 20 games this season. Louisville beat SMU, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, NC State and Baylor in the next five before hitting a 1-3 stretch with losses to SMU, Clemson and North Carolina. The Cards beat Syracuse, Miami and SMU from there before a loss to Miami, giving the team a 23-10 record this year.
In the tournament matchup versus the Hurricanes last Thursday, the Cardinals went into the locker room with a 38-37 advantage. Louisville hit a 41-35 run the rest of the way and powered out the win 78-73 in the end. Tops in scoring was Ryan Conwell with 22 points, nine rebounds and three assists. J’Vonne Hadley added 19 points with six rebounds and three assists in the loss as well.
Why the Louisville Cardinals will win
- South Florida has lost 42 of its last 44 games against AP-ranked opponents.
- Louisville has won each of its last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
- South Florida has lost the first half in each of its last six games against non-Conference opponents at neutral venues.
Why the South Florida Bulls will win
- South Florida has won each of its last 11 games.
- Louisville has lost four of its last five NCAA Tournament games.
- South Florida has won the first half in each of its last seven games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Louisville’s last 18 games against non-Conference opponents at neutral venues has produced a total of 165 or fewer points.
- Each of South Florida’s last seven-day games has produced a total of 164 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Louisville ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goals made per game this season (11.9).
- Louisville ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (32.7).
- South Florida ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (20.5).
- South Florida ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (27.7).
Louisville vs South Florida Prediction
I’ll lean toward Louisville but you could rationalize this one either way. The Cardinals had a near-miss loss versus Miami (whom they had beaten a couple of games earlier) in the conference tournament, thanks mostly to a 44-38 deficit on points in the paint and 12 turnovers for 17 Hurricanes points. Louisville shot well, though (48.2 percent) and had a 34-29 rebounding edge. The Cardinals are still 3-1 in their last four games with 73 or more points scored in three of those.
As for South Florida, they’re riding high right now after the tournament championship and the excellent win streak. The Bulls didn’t shoot well (37.7 percent) in the win over Wichita State and got out-rebounded 36-33, but did hold the Shockers to just 33.9 percent shooting on defense. USF has bagged victories in 11 straight games now, scoring 70 or more points in 10 of those. We should have a pretty good matchup here.
