Michigan State vs New Mexico Prediction 3/23/25 College Basketball Picks Today
New Mexico (27-7) vs. Michigan State (28-6)
March 23, 2025 8:40 pm EDT
The Line: Michigan State -7.5; Over/Under: 148.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The New Mexico Lobos and Michigan State Spartans meet Sunday in the college basketball Second Round at the Rocket Arena. Here’s a Michigan State vs New Mexico Prediction. This article will include a Michigan State vs New Mexico Pick.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
The New Mexico Lobos recently played UNLV, San Jose State, Boise State, and Marquette. New Mexico is 13-3 since January 17.
The New Mexico Lobos are averaging 81.2 points on 45.9 percent shooting and allowing 70.8 points on 42.9 percent shooting. Donovan Dent is averaging 20.6 points and 2.4 rebounds, while Nelly Junior Joseph is averaging 14.1 points and 11.1 rebounds. Mustapha Amzil is the third double-digit scorer and Tru Washington is grabbing 4 rebounds. The New Mexico Lobos are shooting 34.7 percent from beyond the arc and 68.7 percent from the free throw line. The New Mexico Lobos are allowing 33.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 35.3 rebounds per game.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
The Michigan State Spartans recently played Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Bryant. Michigan State has won nine of its last 10 games since February 15.
The Michigan State Spartans are averaging 78.2 points on 48.1 percent shooting and allowing 67.2 points on 40.3 percent shooting. Jaden Akins is averaging 12.6 points and 1.5 assists, while Jase Richardson is averaging 12.1 points and 3.2 rebounds. Tre Holloman is dishing 3.8 assists and Coen Carr is grabbing 3.6 rebounds. The Michigan State Spartans are shooting 30.8 percent from beyond the arc and 78.1 percent from the free throw line. The Michigan State Spartans are allowing 27.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 36.8 rebounds per game.
Why the Michigan State Spartans will win
- Michigan State has won 23 of its last 24 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
- New Mexico has lost four of its last five NCAA Tournament games.
- Michigan State has won the first half in each of its last 10 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
- New Mexico has won 16 of its last 18 night games against non-Conference opponents.
- New Mexico has won the first half in each of its last nine night games played at neutral venues.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Michigan State’s last eight NCAA Tournament games against a lower seed have produced a total of 147 or fewer points.
- Each of New Mexico’s last five games have produced a total of 148 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Michigan State ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point percentage this season (28.0%).
- Michigan State ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (56.6%).
- New Mexico ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (65.8%).
- New Mexico ranks 6th among Division 1 teams for pace this season (73.4).
Michigan State vs New Mexico Injury Report
Neither New Mexico nor Michigan State have a player listed on its injury report.
Michigan State vs New Mexico Prediction
Michigan State has the name, the big conference, the respected coach and the pedigree, so it’s going to be favored. Michigan State is also 23-10-1 ATS on the season. However, this line is disrespectful toward a balanced New Mexico squad that’s top-30 in offensive scoring. New Mexico had its way with Marquette in the first round as a 4.5-point underdog and held a good Golden Eagles offense to 41 percent shooting from the field.
New Mexico hasn’t had much covering success this season, especially lately, but the Lobos are more than a team that’s happy to be here. Michigan State can go through scoring droughts at times, and that’s going to leave the door open for New Mexico. I’ll take a shot with the points.
