Michigan State vs Ole Miss Prediction 3/28/25 College Basketball Picks Today

The Ole Miss Rebels and the Michigan State Spartans meet Friday in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 college basketball action from State Farm Arena. Here’s a Michigan State vs Ole Miss prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Michigan State vs Ole Miss pick.

Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview

Ole Miss posted a nice run into January, but then tripped themselves up amid difficult conference games. The Rebels lost to only Purdue and Memphis in their first 17 outings, then hit losses to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Missouri and Auburn in the next five. A 3-3 run came next with wins over Kentucky, LSU and South Carolina ahead of losses to Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Auburn. After that came a 3-2 stretch with wins over Oklahoma, Tennessee and Arkansas mixed with losses to Florida and Auburn. Ole Miss has since beaten North Carolina and Iowa State in the national tourney, giving them a 24-11 overall record so far.

In the Iowa State matchup on Sunday, the Rebels entered the second half with a 40-29 edge. Ole Miss kept the pressure on with a 51-49 run the rest of the way and took the win 91-78 in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Sean Pedulla with 20 points, eight assists, four steals and two rebounds. Matthew Murrell added 15 points with four rebounds and two steals, while Malik Dia had 18 points with eight boards and two steals in 26 minutes of action in the victory.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

Over on the Michigan State side, they had a very brief run of rough games back in February but other than that they’ve been impressive amid a tough Big Ten slate. The Spartans opened at 5-2, then beat Minnesota, Nebraska, Oakland, FAU, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers and Minnesota in succession. Michigan State lost three of the next four versus USC, UCLA and Indiana, then beat Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and Oregon before a conference tournament loss to Wisconsin. The Spartans have taken out Bryant and New Mexico so far in the national tournament, giving the team a 29-6 overall record.

In the New Mexico matchup back on Sunday, the Spartans held a two-point deficit by the break. Michigan State woke up in the second half though, notching a 42-32 run on the way to a 71-63 victory in the end. The only starter to finish in double-digits was Jaden Akins with 16 points and one rebound in 30 minutes. Tre Holloman (14 points; four assists; three steals) and Frankie Fidler (10 points) came off the bench to provide the Spartans with a winning lift.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan State has won 24 of its last 25 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
• Ole Miss has lost 24 of its last 28 games against AP-ranked opponents.
• Ole Miss has lost the first half in each of its last eight games against Top 10 AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Ole Miss Rebels will win

• Ole Miss has won each of its last 16 night games against non-Conference opponents.
• Michigan State has lost four of its last five NCAA Tournament night games against Top 8 Seeds.
• Ole Miss has won the first half in each of its last six night games against non-Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Ole Miss’ last nine games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 152+ points.
• Seven of Michigan State’s last nine NCAA Tournament games against a lower seed have produced a total of 143 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan State ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point percentage this season (28.0%).
• Michigan State ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (56.6%).
• Ole Miss ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for turnovers per game this season (8.8).
• Ole Miss ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for turnover percentage this season (11.2%).

Michigan State vs Ole Miss Prediction

I’m going to lean toward Michigan State, but you could call this one either way—especially with a fairly lackluster performance for the Spartans versus New Mexico. Michigan State shot pretty well from the field (44.4 percent) in that one and had a 34-28 rebounding edge with just nine turnovers. The Spartans gave up 48.2 percent shooting on the other side though, and missed nine of their 28 free throws (67.9 percent). Those attempts from the line are going to be crucial moving forward. Still, Michigan State has scored 71 or more points in nine of the last 11 games—a 10-1 run.

As for Ole Miss, they looked good against a talented Iowa State team in their latest win. The Rebels shot a nice 58.2 percent from the field with 57.9 percent (11-of-19) from 3-point range and only eight turnovers. Ole Miss got 20 points off 15 Cyclones turnovers though, so ball control is going to be very important for Michigan State here. I like this one to be won on the boards and at the line, so if the Spartans can play to their capabilities I think they’ve got it. Should be a great one to watch regardless.