Mississippi State vs Baylor Prediction 3/21/25 College Basketball Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mississippi State vs Baylor prediction for this College Basketball game on Friday, March 21st at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this game in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tournament. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 21-12 (8-10) this year after they lost to Missouri by a score of 85-73 in the SEC Tournament. Mississippi State trailed 39-34 at halftime and they allowed 46 more points in the second half in the loss. The Bulldogs shot 36.4% from the field, 20% on three pointers, and 70.4% on free throws in the game. Josh Hubbard led Mississippi State with 24 points and one rebound, while KeShawn Murphy added 18 points and eight rebounds in the game. 

Prior to that loss, the Bulldogs defeated LSU by a score of 91-62, but did lose to Arkansas by a score of 93-92 before that. Mississippi State has lost five of their last seven games and they finished tied for ninth in the SEC standings with an 8-10 record. The Bulldogs competed in the tough SEC this year and they have non-conference wins over SMU, Pittsburgh, and Memphis. Mississippi State has scored 79.8 points per game and they have allowed 74.2 points against per game, while also averaging 38.2 rebounds and 15.3 assists per game this season. Josh Hubbard is averaging 18.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, while KeShawn Murphy is averaging 11.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game this year. Mississippi State is shooting 45.1% from the field, 70% on free throws, and 31.4% on three pointers this season. 

Baylor Bears Betting Preview

The Baylor Bears are 19-14 (10-10) this season after they lost to Texas Tech by a score of 76-74 in their last game. Baylor trailed 52-39 at halftime, but they did hold Texas Tech to just 24 points in the second half in the close loss. The Bears shot 45% from the field, 25% on three pointers, and 84.2% on free throws in the game. Norchad Omier led Baylor with 29 points and 15 rebounds, while VJ Edgecombe added 11 points and seven rebounds in the game. 

Prior to that loss, the Bears defeated Kansas State by a score of 70-56, but did lose to Houston by a score of 65-61 before that. Baylor has won three of their last five games and they finished tied for seventh in the Big 12 standings with a 10-10 record. The Bears do have non-conference wins over St. John’s and Arkansas, but they also have losses to Gonzaga by 38 points, Tennessee by 15 points, and UConn by four points. Baylor has scored 76.5 points per game and they have allowed 69.2 points against per game, while also averaging 36 rebounds and 14.6 assists per game this season. Norchad Omier is averaging 15.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game, while VJ Edgecombe is averaging 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game this year. Baylor is shooting 44.8% from the field, 74.5% on free throws, and 35.1% on three pointers this season. 

Why Baylor will beat Mississippi State

• Baylor has won nine of its last 10 day games against non-Conference opponents.
• Mississippi State has lost three of its last four games.
• Baylor has won the first half in each of its last nine day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Mississippi State’s last seven games have produced a total of 150+ points.
• Seven of Baylor’s last eight games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 145+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Mississippi State ranks T18th among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (9.1).
• Mississippi State ranks 18th among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (63.3).
• Baylor ranks 47th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (69.4%).

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Mississippi State vs Baylor Prediction 

Mississippi State finished below .500 in conference play this year and they have lost three of their last four games, but they did have to navigate the very powerful SEC. The Bulldogs have had some defensive issues in recent games, as they have allowed 85+ points in three of their last four games. Baylor has lost two of their last three games, but both losses did come by a combined six points. The Bears are the better defensive team in this contest and they need to slow the pace down if they want to have a chance. This will be an interesting battle between the Big 12 and SEC, but I am leaning towards Baylor, as this Mississippi State defense has been a mess.