NC State vs Texas Prediction 3/17/26 College Basketball Picks Today
Texas (18-14) vs. NC State (20-13)
March 17, 2026 9:15 pm EDT
The Line: NC State -1.5; Over/Under: 158.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Texas Longhorns and the NC State Wolfpack meet Tuesday in NCAA Tournament First Four college basketball action from UD Arena in Dayton. Here’s an NC State vs. Texas prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best NC State vs. Texas pick.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
The Longhorns opened up the season on a 9-4 run, then hit a rough 3-5 stretch over the next eight games with losses to Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky and Auburn. A win streak over Oklahoma, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU came next, then a 1-4 stretch to finish off the season with a lone win over Texas A&M. After a loss to Ole Miss last week, the Longhorns are 18-14 overall this year.
In their conference tournament opener matchup versus Ole Miss last Wednesday, the Longhorns emerged from the locker room after the break with an 11-point deficit, 41-30. Texas hit a 36-35 stretch the rest of the way in an eventual loss of 76-66. Topping the team in scoring was Dailyn Swain with 22 points, 12 rebounds and four assists. Jordan Pope added 16 points with three boards.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview
Over on the NC State side, they kicked off their season on a 12-6 clip, then hit a win streak over the next six games versus Clemson, Pitt, Syracuse, Wake Forest, SMU and Virginia Tech. A 1-6 stretch followed with losses to Louisville, Miami, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke and Stanford, then a conference tourney win over Pitt. The next game was a loss to Virginia, though, giving the Wolfpack a 20-13 record.
Matched up against Virginia on Thursday, the Wolfpack were exiting the floor after the first half with a one-point deficit, 33-32. NC State was outscored 48-42 the rest of the way, leading to an 81-74 loss in the end. Tops in scoring during the defeat was Paul McNeil with 26 points, six boards and one assist. Ven-Allen Lubin added 14 points with 10 rebounds, two steals and three blocks for the Wolfpack in the losing effort.
Why the NC State Wolfpack will win
- NC State has won each of its last 10 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Texas has lost each of its last four night games.
- NC State has won the first half in nine of its last 10 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the Texas Longhorns will win
- NC State has lost each of its last four night games against the Southeastern Conference.
- Texas has won 19 of its last 25 games against non-conference opponents.
- Texas has won the first half in 10 of its last 11 games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Twelve of NC State’s last 13 night games against the Southeastern Conference have produced a total of 156 or fewer points.
- Thirty-six of Texas’ last 40 night games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 157 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- NC State ranks 11th among Division 1 teams for turnover percentage this season (11.7%).
- NC State ranks 15th among Division 1 teams for turnovers per game this season (9.3).
- Texas ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (19.8).
- Texas ranks T7th among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (26.4).
NC State vs Texas Prediction
I’ll stick with Texas. The Longhorns didn’t shoot great from the floor in their loss to Ole Miss last week (35.2 percent) and had 13 turnovers for 13 Rebels points. Texas also got demolished in the paint 50-18 in that one. Still, the Longhorns did some good things, like 84 percent (21-of-25) from the line and a 35-31 rebounding advantage. Texas is just 1-5 over the last six games, and they’ve given up 70 or more points in all of those outings (84 or more in four of them). They’re scoring well on the other side, though, generally speaking.
As for NC State, they didn’t shoot well (36.8 percent) in their conference tournament loss either, but did hit 50 percent (11-of-22) from outside and 87.5 percent (21-of-24) from the line versus Virginia. The Wolfpack got outscored in the paint 30-16 and gave up 47.5 percent shooting on defense. NC State is also 1-5 in their last six games, giving up 81 or more points in all of those outings. We should have a pretty high total here, and it’ll be a fun matchup.
