NCAA Tournament: San Diego State vs. Creighton 3/17/22 College Basketball Picks, Predictions, Odds

The San Diego State Aztecs and Creighton Bluejays clash Thursday in the NCAA tournament first round matchup in college basketball action from the Dickies Arena.

The Creighton Bluejays come into the conference tournament as the #9-seed, finishing the year at 22-11 overall including a 12-7 mark in Big East conference play. The Bluejays took down Marquette and Providence before falling to Villanova in the conference championship game. Ryan Hawkins leads the Bluejays in scoring and rebounding with 13.9 PPG and 7.8 RPG while Ryan Nembhard has 11.3 PPG and a team-high 4.4 APG to lead Creighton in assists. Ryan Kalkbrenner has 13 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 2.7 BPG and Alex O’Connell has 11.5 PPG with 5.3 RPG to make up the group of double-digit scorers for Creighton this season. As a team, Creighton is averaging 69 PPG on 45.1% shooting from the field, 31% from three and 72.4% from the foul line while allowing 66.7 PPG on 40% shooting from the field and 32.7% from three this season.

The San Diego State Aztecs come into the conference tournament as the #8-seed, finishing the year at 23-8 overall including a 13-4 mark in Mountain West conference play. The Aztecs beat Fresno State and Colorado State before falling to Boise State in the conference championship game. Matt Bradley leads the Aztecs in scoring with 17 PPG along with 5.4 RPG as the only double-digit scorer for San Diego State so far this season. Nathan Mensah has 7.3 PPG and a team-high 7.1 RPG to lead the Aztecs on the glass and Trey Pulliam has 8.5 PPG with a team-high 3.4 APG to lead the Aztecs in the assist department this season. As a team, San Diego State is averaging 66.3 PPG on 43.5% shooting from the field, 35.6% from three and 69.7% from the foul line while allowing 58.3 PPG on 37.9% shooting from the field and 30.6% from three this season.

Creighton is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 NCAA tournament games as an underdog while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 NCAA tournament games. San Diego State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall while the under is 5-0 in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.

I get the case to be made for either side here, as both have paths to success here. With that said, this is going to be a defensive slugfest I think. Creighton wants to run and gun, but San Diego State won’t let that happen and how many times have we seen San Diego State in low-scoring games this season. This is going to be an ugly game where it could be the first to 50 wins. Give me the under.