Nevada vs Liberty Prediction 3/21/26 College Basketball Picks Today

The Liberty Flames and the Nevada Wolf Pack meet Saturday in NIT college basketball action from Lawlor Events Center in Reno. Here’s a Nevada vs. Liberty prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Nevada vs. Liberty pick.

Liberty Flames Betting Preview

Liberty kicked off their season with a 6-3 run, then hit a very nice 17-game win streak that lasted from December 16 versus Midway U to February 19 versus Florida International. The Flames posted a sketchy 2-4 run over their next six games, which included losses versus Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State, LA Tech and Missouri State. The first NIT matchup was a win over George Mason.

In the Tuesday game versus the Patriots in NIT First Round action, the Flames were ahead by double digits, 34-24 at the end of the first half. Liberty was outscored 47-43 the rest of the way but held on for the win 77-71 in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Josh Smith with 23 points, nine boards, one steal and one assist. Brett Decker added 17 points with four rebounds in the victory.

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview

Over on the Nevada side, they’ve had a pretty uneven year. The Wolf Pack were sitting at 17-7 through their first 24 games back on February 7. A 2-4 stretch ensued after that, featuring losses to San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV and Wyoming. After wins over Air Force (twice) and Grand Canyon, Nevada lost to Utah State ahead of a First Round win over Murray State.

In the Murray State game on Wednesday, the Wolf Pack held a slim 41-39 advantage by the end of the first half. Nevada hit a 48-36 run the rest of the way and powered out the victory in the end, 89-75. Vaughn Weems put up 23 points with five rebounds and two assists while Corey Camper added 17 points with eight rebounds, five assists and one steal over the course of 35 minutes.

Why the Nevada Wolf Pack will win

• Nevada has won each of its last nine games at Lawlor Events Center.
• Liberty has lost three of its last four night games.
• Nevada has won the first half in each of its last four games against non-Conference opponents at Lawlor Events Center.

Why the Liberty Flames will win

• Liberty has won 11 of its last 12 road games.
• Nevada has lost three of its last four night games following a home win.
• Liberty has won the first half in each of its last three games.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Liberty’s last six games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 142 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Nevada ranks 9th among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (19.4).
• Nevada ranks 14th among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (25.8).
• Liberty ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for effective field goal percentage this season (61.6%).
• Liberty ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for true shooting percentage this season (63.9%).

Nevada vs Liberty Prediction

I was going to lean toward Nevada, but the line seems generous enough to go the other way. The Wolf Pack put up a pretty nice offensive outing in the Murray State game with 50.7 percent shooting and 88.9 percent (8-of-9) from the line. The five turnovers and 24 points off 15 Racers turnovers were quite helpful as well. Nevada is 4-1 in their last five games, scoring 74 or more points in each of the victories.

As for Liberty, they shot 49.1 percent from the field in their win over George Mason while holding the Patriots to just 39 percent on the other side. The Flames had just five turnovers along the way. Liberty is 3-4 in their last seven games and they’re giving up a pretty healthy amount of points on defense in general. Nevada should have a green light to put up a nice total in this one but I think Liberty can get in there.