North Carolina vs Louisville 2/21/22 College Basketball Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Louisville Cardinals and the North Carolina Tar Heels meet in college basketball action from the Dean Smith Assembly Center on Monday night.

The Louisville Cardinals will look to build on their 70-61 win over Clemson in their last game. Noah Locke leads the Cardinals in scoring with 9.7 PPG while Malik Williams has 9.6 PPG with a team-high 8.1 RPG to lead the Cardinals on the glass. El Ellis has 9.1 PPG and Jarrod West has a team-high 3 APG to lead the Cardinals in assists this season. As a team, Louisville is averaging 68.3 PPG on 42.1% shooting from the field, 31.4% from three and 68.5% from the foul line while allowing 69.3 PPG on 42.5% shooting from the field and 33.8% from three this season.

The North Carolina Tar Heels will hope to build on a 65-57 win over Virginia Tech last time out. Armando Bacot leads UNC in scoring and rebounding with 16.1 PPG and 12.2 RPG, averaging a double-double per game while Caleb Love has 15.3 PPG with 3.1 RPG and a team-high 3.7 APG. R.J. Davis has 13.4 PPG with 3.8 RPG and 3.4 APG while Brady Manek has 13.7 PPG with 5.7 RPG to round out the scoring in double figures for the Tar Heels so far this season. As a team, North Carolina is averaging 77.8 PPG on 45.6% shooting from the field, 38% from behind the arc and 75.6% from the foul line while allowing 72.4 PPG on 43.3% shooting from the field and 35% from three this season.

Louisville is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win. North Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games while the over is 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.

I get the case to be made both ways here as the Tar Heels are the far better team, but blowing teams out isn’t the priority right now, it’s just about winning by any means necessary to hold on to high rank in the top-tier of the ACC standings. On the other hand, Louisville is a better team than the record would indicate, but you never know when they’re going to show up. I’m leaning towards UNC laying the points at home here, as Louisville has had a tendency of getting beat up on the road this season and I think North Carolina pulls away in the second half on the way to the cover.