North Carolina vs Notre Dame Prediction 3/12/25 College Basketball Picks Today

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the North Carolina Tar Heels meet Wednesday in ACC Tournament college basketball action from Spectrum Center. Here’s a North Carolina vs Notre Dame prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best North Carolina vs Notre Dame pick.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview

The Irish have been on a pretty rough run for most of the year, but they’ve played better lately to their credit. Notre Dame went 7-5 over their first 12 outings, taking losses to Elon, Rutgers, Houston, Creighton and Georgia during that time. losses to Georgia Tech, North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Syracuse, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville SMU, Clemson and Wake Forest came after that, mixed with wins over Boston College, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Boston College again and Pittsburgh. Since then it’s been three straight wins for the Irish. Those have come courtesy of Stanford, California and Pittsburgh. In total that gives the Irish a 15-17 overall run across 32 games overall this year.

On Tuesday versus Pitt, the Irish went into the second half with a three-point lead. Notre Dame managed to hang on after a 32-30 deficit from there and won 55-54. Tops in scoring was Tae Davis with his 11 points and five rebounds in 34 minutes of work.

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

Over on the Tar Heels’ side, they’ve had a couple of sketchy spots in the record column so far—specifically in November and January—but overall they’re looking pretty good. North Carolina lost just one of their first five games (versus Kansas), then fell to Auburn, Michigan State and Alabama in the next trio. A 4-2 run came next with losses to Florida and Louisville among wins over Georgia Tech, La Salle, UCLA and Campbell, then wins over Notre Dame, SMU, NC State and Cal. North Carolina would fall to Stanford, Wake Forest, Pitt, Duke and Clemson over the next seven, then took wins over Syracuse, NC State, Virginia, Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech before another loss to Duke. In total that gives the Tar Heels a 20-12 overall run across 32 games so far this year.

In the Duke matchup over the weekend, the Tar Heels came out of the break with a one-point deficit 43-42. North Carolina didn’t get any closer from there on a 39-27 run and took the loss in the end 82-69. Topping the scorers in the home defeat was RJ Davis with 20 points, three rebounds, three assists and a steal. Ven-Allen Lubin added 11 points with six rebounds, one steal and one block off the bench in 29 minutes. Ian Jackson chipped in eight bench points with one assist and one steal as well.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win

• North Carolina has won 17 of its last 18 day games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.
• Notre Dame has lost four of its last five games played at neutral venues.
• North Carolina has won the first half in each of its last 15 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will win

• Notre Dame has won five of its last six Conference Tournament day games.
• North Carolina has lost three of its last four games played at neutral venues.
• North Carolina has lost the first half in each of its last five games played at neutral venues.

Total Points Facts

• Each of North Carolina’s last nine games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 150+ points.
• Six of Notre Dame’s last seven day games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 142 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• North Carolina ranks 21st among Division 1 teams for field goals made per game this season (29.1).
• North Carolina ranks T24th among Division 1 teams for points per game this season (81.7).
• Notre Dame ranks T357th among Division 1 teams for blocks per game this season (1.7).

North Carolina vs Notre Dame Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Tar Heels. UNC needs a good bounce-back performance here after looking pretty limp against a great Duke team over the weekend, though. North Carolina shot just 39.1 percent from the field in that one with a 39-26 rebounding deficit and 56.4 percent shooting allowed on the other side. The good news is that the Tar Heels hit 10-of-11 free throws (90.9 percent) and had just six turnovers. The loss halts a six-game win streak for UNC, who had scored 81 or more points in each of those wins—and 91 or more in four of them.

These teams have met once this year, all the way back on January 4 in a 74-73 road win for the Tar Heels. North Carolina shot very well (52.9 percent) from the field in that one but also hit a tepid 28.6 percent (6-of-21) from 3-point range and had 13 turnovers for 10 Notre Dame points. The Tar Heels will face an Irish team that’s won three straight in the the rematch on Wednesday, but I think UNC will take care of business overall.