North Texas vs Arkansas State Prediction 3/23/25 College Basketball Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a North Texas vs Arkansas State prediction for this College Basketball game on Sunday, March 23 at the UNT Coliseum in Denton, TX. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this game in the 2nd Round of the NIT. The winner of this game will meet SMU or Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves (24-10, 18-14-1 ATS) finished the regular season with three straight wins over UL Monroe, Louisiana, and UL Monroe to secure the No. 4 seed for the Sun Belt tournament. The Red Wolves joined the tournament in the quarterfinals, beating Marshall and then edging out No. 1 South Alabama in the semis. However, Arkansas State was helpless against Troy in the finals and lost 94-81. At the NIT, Arkansas State dismantled Saint Louis 103-78 in the first round.

Arkansas State averages 79.9 PPG (43rd) and allows 70.4 PPG (132nd). The Red Wolves are 10th in rebounds (40.8) and 141st in assists (14.3). Taryn Todd leads the team with 14.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, and 1.2 SPG. Joseph Pinion follows him with 12.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 1.2 SPG, while Kobe Julien chips in 11.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and a team-high 1.4 SPG.

North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview

The North Texas Mean Green (25-8, 16-13-2 ATS) were in great form with seven consecutive wins late in the regular season but couldn’t win the very last game as Temple prevented them from making it eight in a row. North Texas booked the No. 2 seed and beat Tulsa in the quarterfinals of the American tournament, but lost the semis to UAB. North Texas defeated Furman in the first round of the NIT.

North Texas is averaging 68.3 PPG (343rd) and is allowing 59.8 PPG (3rd). The Mean Green are getting 32.7 RPG (360th) and dish out 10.6 APG (424th). Atin Wright is the team’s top performer with 15.2 PPG and 2.4 RPG. Brenen Lorient has 12.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and a team-high 1.1 BPG, while Brenen Lorient contributes 8.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, a team-high 3.9 APG, and a team-high 1.3 SPG.

Why North Texas will beat Arkansas State

• North Texas has won each of its last 12 night games at The Super Pit.

Total Points Facts

• Fourteen of Arkansas State’s last 15 games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 141+ points.
• Nine of North Texas’ last 10 home night games against the Sun Belt Conference have produced a total of 136 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• North Texas ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for opponent points per game this season (59.5).
• North Texas ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for opponent assists per game this season (9.4).
• Arkansas State ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (64.0).
• Arkansas State ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal percentage this season (40.0%).

North Texas vs Arkansas State Prediction

The teams have traded victories in the previous ten games as each recorded five, but the last H2H duel was played back in 2013. North Texas is in better form recently and is great at home this season, having a 16-1 record, so I am leaning toward the Mean Green in this one. It’s likely going to be a low-scoring affair as North Texas has one of the strongest defenses in the country and is the second-slowest offense. I don’t know how Arkansas State will manage such a situation when the opponent doesn’t have plenty of possessions, which also means fewer possessions for them as well. I am backing the Mean Green to win and cover a modest spread.