Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction 2/26/26 College Basketball Picks Today
Michigan State (22-5) vs. Purdue (22-5)
February 26, 2026 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Purdue -7.5; Over/Under: 142.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Purdue vs Michigan State prediction for this College Basketball game on Thursday, February 26th at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Basketball matchup.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
The Purdue Boilermakers are 22-5 (12-4) this season after they defeated Indiana by a score of 93-64 in their last game. Purdue led 46-29 at halftime and they added 47 points in the second half in the blowout win. The Boilermakers shot 65% from the field, 56% on three pointers, and 68% on free throws in the game. Trey Kaufman-Renn led Purdue with 20 points and six rebounds, while Fletcher Loyer added 18 points and two assists in the win.
Prior to that game, Purdue lost to Michigan by a score of 91-80, but did beat Iowa by a score of 78-57 before that. The Boilermakers have scored 82.9 points per game with 36.4 rebounds and 19.7 assists per game, while they have allowed 69.3 points against per game this season. Braden Smith is averaging 14.9 points and 8.7 assists per game, while Fletcher Loyer is averaging 13.6 points and 2.3 rebounds per game for the Boilermakers. Purdue is shooting 50.2% from the field, 74.3% on free throws, and 38.0% on three pointers this season.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
The Michigan State Spartans are 22-5 (12-4) this year after they defeated Ohio State by a score of 66-60 in their last game. Michigan State trailed 26-23 at halftime, but they scored 43 points in the second half to get the win. The Spartans shot 40% from the field, 27% on three pointers, and 72% on free throws in the game. Carson Cooper led MSU with 20 points and 11 rebounds, while Jordan Scott added 12 points and four rebounds in the win.
Prior to that game, Michigan State defeated UCLA by a score of 82-59, but lost to Wisconsin by a score of 92-71 before that. The Spartans have scored 78.4 points per game with 41.1 rebounds and 18.6 assists per game, while they have allowed 66.1 points against per game this season. Jeremy Fears Jr is averaging 15.0 points and 9.2 assists per game, while Jaxon Kohler is averaging 12.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game for the Spartans. Michigan State is shooting 46.6% from the field, 75.7% on free throws, and 35.2% on three pointers this year.
Why the Purdue Boilermakers will win
- Michigan State has lost each of its last eight games at Mackey Arena.
- Purdue has won each of its last 17 Thursday games at Mackey Arena.
- Michigan State has lost the first half in each of its last eight February road games as a top-15 AP-ranked team.
Why the Michigan State Spartans will win
- Michigan State has won each of its last nine games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- Purdue has lost each of its last four games against AP-ranked opponents at Mackey Arena.
- Purdue has lost the first half in each of its last three games against teams with an AP Ranking of 13.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Purdue’s last seven night games against AP-ranked opponents at Mackey Arena have produced a total of 143+ points.
- Five of Michigan State’s last six night games have produced a total of 149+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Purdue ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for assist to turnover ratio this season (2.16).
- Purdue ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for assists per game this season (19.7).
- Michigan State ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (28.5).
- Michigan State ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (59.1%).
Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction
Michigan State comes into this matchup after winning three of their last four games, but they are 0-2 in their last two road games. The Spartans are shooting 47% from the field and they have allowed 60 points or fewer in back to back games. Purdue has won five of their last six games, but they have failed to cover in three of their last four home games. The Boilermakers are shooting 50% from the field and they have allowed 64 points or fewer in three of their last five. I think Purdue will get the win, but this is a ton of points to give to MSU. Take the Spartans here.
