SMU vs Miami (OH) Prediction 3/18/26 College Basketball Picks Today

The Miami-OH RedHawks and the SMU Mustangs meet Wednesday in NCAA Tournament First Four college basketball action from UD Arena in Dayton. Here’s an SMU vs. Miami-OH prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best SMU vs. Miami-Ohio pick.

Miami-Ohio RedHawks Betting Preview

The RedHawks opened up the season on an absolute tear (despite some very close calls along the way). Miami-OH won all 31 games in the regular season, running the table against teams like Old Dominion, Maine, Ball State, Bowling Green, Toledo, Buffalo, Kent State, UMass and Marshall. In the first game of the conference tournament, however, the RedHawks fell to UMass.

In the tourney game versus the Minutemen last Thursday, the RedHawks were in the locker room looking up at a 39-37 advantage. Miami-OH was outscored in the second half 50-44, however, leading to an 87-83 loss in the end. Brant Byers led the team with 17 points and five rebounds, while Eian Elmer put up 16 points with three rebounds, two assists and two steals.

SMU Mustangs Betting Previewrun,

Over on the SMU side, they started out the year on a 12-2 run then lost five of the next eight games versus Clemson, Duke, Virginia, Louisville and NC State. A 4-1 run came next with a lone loss to Syracuse, then losses to California, Stanford, Miami and Florida State. After a win over Syracuse in the tournament, the Mustangs fell to Louisville in the next game for a 20-13 record so far.

In the conference tournament matchup versus Louisville last Wednesday, the Mustangs were all tied up 26-26 as the second half began. SMU hit a 36-32 deficit the rest of the way, resulting in a 62-58 loss as the game came to a conclusion. The Mustangs’ Jaron Pierre topped the team with 17 points with four rebounds, while Jaden Toombs added 13 points with nine boards and three steals.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won 17 of its last 20 games against non-conference opponents.
• SMU has won the first half in 20 of its last 25 night games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Miami RedHawks will win

• Miami (OH) has won each of its last 20 night games.
• SMU has lost nine of its last 10 night games against AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has lost the first half in 11 of its last 12 night games against AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Miami (OH)’s last seven games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues has produced a total of 153 or fewer points.
• Each of SMU’s last four games against non-conference opponents has produced a total of 166+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks 360th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (29.0).
• SMU ranks 359th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (10.0).
• Miami (OH) ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for field goal percentage this season (52.6%).
• Miami (OH) ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for true shooting percentage this season (64.8%).

SMU vs Miami-OH Prediction

I’ll lean toward SMU. The Mustangs could use a livelier performance here than the one they got versus Louisville, though. In that one SMU shot a just-okay 42.9 percent from the field with only three free throws (one made for 33.3 percent) versus the Cards’ 14-of-20 effort (70 percent). Outside of the 11 turnovers, the Mustangs didn’t play too badly otherwise and held Louisville to just 39.6 percent shooting on defense. SMU is just 1-5 over their last six games, giving up 69 or more points in five of those outings.

As for Miami-OH, they’ve been playing with fire at a lot of points this season, and they got burned in the loss to UMass. The RedHawks shot a nice 48.3 percent from the field but got blitzed 37-19 on the boards and 54-30 on points in the paint. The 52.2 percent shooting allowed didn’t help matters either. This one’s probably going to be a fairly close game, and I don’t think the RedHawks will pull it off.