St. Mary’s vs New Mexico Prediction Basketball Picks 11-9-23

The stage is set for a classic college basketball clash as the New Mexico Lobos (1-0) face off against the Saint Mary’s Gaels (1-0) in a game that promises to be a showcase of offensive prowess and defensive grit. With both teams looking to continue their winning streak, the Lobos will rely on their scoring touch, while the Gaels will look to dominate the glass and exert their defensive will.

New Mexico Lobos: Offensive Juggernauts

The New Mexico Lobos have hit the hardwood with intensity and precision, boasting a formidable offense that has blitzed past its opponent to the tune of 92 points. The scoring leaderboard features Jamal Mashburn Jr., a sharpshooter with 15 points scored on opening night, while Donovan Dent scored 12 points and added 6 assists. These two aren’t just putting points on the board; they’re setting the rhythm for the Lobos’ offense. The team’s aggressive rebounding approach, spearheaded by JT Toppin’s 9 rebounds, underscores their commitment to controlling the paint and securing second-chance opportunities.

Defensively, the Lobos have shown they can lock down the fort, limiting their opening night opponent to 55 points. Their ability to transition from staunch defense to fast-break offense has been a crucial aspect of their strategy. A 44.8% shooting from the field signals efficient shot selection and a balanced offensive attack that can keep defenses guessing. The Lobos will need to maintain their defensive tenacity and offensive fluidity if they hope to contain a Saint Mary’s team that has been equally impressive on both ends of the floor.

Yet, for all their offensive firepower, the Lobos face a stern test against the Gaels’ ironclad defense. Trends suggest that when the Lobos’ scoring meets resistance, they tend to struggle with maintaining their high-energy play. Their success hinges on their ability to establish an early lead and force Saint Mary’s to play catch-up, a scenario where the Lobos thrive by dictating the pace and keeping their opponents off balance.

Saint Mary’s Gaels: Defensive Titans

The Saint Mary’s Gaels have displayed a brand of basketball that can only be described as dominant. Scoring 107 points in their first game while giving up just 28 showcases a team that has excelled in exerting its will both offensively and defensively. Mason Forbes was the leading scorer with 19 points on an efficient 80.0 field-goal shooting percentage. Aidan Mahaney was a close second in scoring, dropping 15 points and leading the team with five assists, demonstrating his ability to impact the game beyond scoring.

The Gaels’ defensive prowess is anchored by the rebounding duo of Mitchell Saxen and Harry Wessels, each grabbing 8 rebounds. This rebounding strength is a key component of their defensive strategy, as it limits opponents to one-and-done possessions. Additionally, their ability to alter shots inside with a strong shot-blocking presence has made the paint a difficult place for opposing offenses. The Gaels’ defense, combined with their methodical and efficient scoring, sets them up as a formidable opponent for any team. If the Gaels establish their rhythm early, they could very well dictate the pace and style of play, forcing New Mexico to adapt to a game plan that doesn’t play to their strengths. 

David’s Pick – Saint Mary’s Gaels (-2.5)

The key to this matchup will be the battle of tempo and control. The Saint Mary’s Gaels have demonstrated a suffocating defense and an offense that can light up the scoreboard. The Gaels’ ability to dominate inside with players like Forbes and Saxen will challenge the Lobos’ defense, which, despite its effectiveness, has not faced a test like this.

New Mexico’s strength is their offense, but they’ll be up against a Gaels defense that has proven to be a nightmare for opponents. Saint Mary’s not only possesses the defensive strength but also the offensive firepower to take the game away from New Mexico. The Gaels have shown they can shut down teams and then run up the score, a combination that’s hard to beat.

Moreover, the Gaels’ home-court advantage at University Credit Union Pavilion, with a capacity crowd expected, will add to the Lobos’ challenges. The Gaels’ fans are known to create a hostile environment for visitors, further tipping the scales in their favor. Given these factors, the smart pick here is the Saint Mary’s Gaels, as they have the tools to dismantle the Lobos’ offense and continue their impressive start to the season.