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Tennessee vs Arkansas Prediction 1-4-25 College Basketball Picks

Arkansas (11-2) vs. Tennessee (13-0)
January 4, 2025 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Tennessee -11.5; Over/Under: 141.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Arkansas Razorbacks and the Tennessee Volunteers meet Saturday in college basketball action from Thompson-Boling Arena. Here’s a Tennessee vs Arkansas prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Tennessee vs Arkansas pick.

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview

Arkansas opened up their season on a 5-1 stretch. The only loss in that time came courtesy of Baylor. Otherwise, it was wins for the Razorbacks over Lipscomb, Troy, Pacific, Little Rock, and Maryland Eastern Shore. Following another loss to Illinois, the Razorbacks embarked upon another win streak that’s still holding strong. Those victories came over Miami, UTSA, Michigan, Central Arkansas, North Carolina A&T, and Oakland in succession.


In the Oakland game on December 30, Arkansas was in control—albeit not by much—by halftime with a 42-39 edge. The Razorbacks woke up after the break and asserted themselves, eventually taking a dominant 92-62 win after a 50-23 finish. Leading the team in scoring was Boogie Fland with 24 points, six assists, and two rebounds in 36 minutes of work. Not too far behind was Adou Thiero with his 20 points, six rebounds, six assists, three steals, two blocks, and three turnovers. Karter Knox added 17 points with three rebounds and two assists, while Trevon Brazile came off the bench to contribute nine points and eight rebounds with six blocks.

Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview

Over on the Volunteers’ side, they’ve earned their status as the top team in the nation with a string of victories over their first 13 games. Tennessee’s unbeaten status has come via wins over Gardner-Webb, Louisville, Montana, Austin Peay, Virginia, Baylor, TN-Martin, Syracuse, Miami, Illinois, Western Carolina, Middle Tennessee, and Norfolk State in succession.

In the Norfolk State game on New Year’s Eve, the Volunteers posted a relatively muted first half but still went into the locker room sporting a 35-28 advantage. Tennessee kept a steady pace in the second, notching a 32-24 run for a 67-52 victory. Leading the charge with his 24 points, two rebounds, two assists, and two steals was Chaz Lanier. Igor Milicic added 10 rebounds with three assists and five points, while three other Volunteers players posted 10 points apiece. Those were Zakai Zeigler (six assists; two steals), Cade Phillips (two rebounds; five blocks off the bench), and Jordan Gainey (three rebounds; three assists off the bench).

Why the Tennessee Volunteers will win

  • Tennessee has won each of its last 13 games.
  • Arkansas has lost each of its last eight day games against AP-ranked opponents.
  • Tennessee has won the first half in 12 of its last 13 games.

Why the Arkansas Razorbacks will win

  • Arkansas has won each of its last eight games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • Tennessee has lost four of its last five day games against AP-ranked opponents.
  • Tennessee has lost the first half in each of its last three day games against the Southeastern Conference.

Tennessee vs Arkansas Prediction

I’m going to take a stab at Arkansas here. The Razorbacks didn’t start off too hot versus Oakland in their last game, but to their credit, Arkansas finished strong. Overall the Razorbacks ended up shooting a nice 60.3 percent from the field with 10-of-22 (45.5 percent) from 3-point range and 85.7 percent (12-of-14) from the line. The 33 rebounds and 21 team assists helped quite a bit as well. In the end, the only real blemish was the 13 turnovers for 11 Grizzlies points.

Arkansas had a couple of scoring duds early on in the season—specifically 67 points versus Baylor in a loss and 65 versus Troy in a win. Since then, however, the Razorbacks have scored 75 or more points in every game.

As for Tennessee, there’s not much to complain about when it comes to an unbeaten team. The Volunteers smothered a decent Norfolk State team with some solid defense in their last outing, holding the Spartans to just 37.3 percent shooting from the field and 15.4 percent (2-of-13) from 3-point range. For what it’s worth, Tennessee did get out-rebounded 33-31 (13-10 offensive) but it didn’t matter in the end.

The Volunteers are a pretty versatile team when it comes to scoring. They’ll finish below 68 points here and there—as they’ve done in three of the last nine outings—but on those occasions, Tennessee really gets the defense going and slows down the pace. Arkansas may have some adjustments to make in that regard, but I think they can stay in cover range here. It’ll be a fun matchup.

Andrew's Free Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks +11.5

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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