Texas Tech vs Kansas State Prediction 2/21/26 College Basketball Picks Today
Kansas State (11-15) vs. Texas Tech (19-7)
February 21, 2026 2:30 pm EDT
The Line: Texas Tech -14.5; Over/Under: 158.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Kansas State Wildcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders meet Saturday in college basketball action at the United Supermarkets Arena. Here’s a Texas Tech vs Kansas State Prediction. This article will include a Texas Tech vs Kansas State Pick.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview
The Kansas State Wildcats lost to Houston, beat Baylor, and they play Colorado next. Kansas State has lost 10 of its last 12 games.
The Kansas State Wildcats are averaging 80.6 points on 46.1 percent shooting and allowing 80.4 points on 45.1 percent shooting. P.J. Haggerty is averaging 23.7 points and 4 assists, while Abdi Bashir Jr. is averaging 13.2 points and 2.2 rebounds. Nate Johnson is the third double-digit scorer and David Castillo is grabbing 2.3 rebounds. The Kansas State Wildcats are shooting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc and 71.4 percent from the free throw line. The Kansas State Wildcats are allowing 33.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 30.9 rebounds per game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview
The Texas Tech Red Raiders beat Arizona, lost to Arizona State, and they play Cincinnati next. Texas Tech has won 8 of its last 11 games.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are averaging 81.4 points on 46.4 percent shooting and allowing 72.4 points on 43.8 percent shooting. JT Toppin is averaging 21.8 points and 2.1 assists, while Christian Anderson is averaging 19 points and 3.5 rebounds. Donovan Atwell is the third double-digit scorer, and LeJuan Watts is grabbing 6.1 rebounds. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc and 71 percent from the free throw line. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are allowing 31.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.5 rebounds per game.
Why the Texas Tech Red Raiders will win
- Texas Tech has won each of its last 17 games at United Supermarkets Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Kansas State has lost each of its last 10 games at United Supermarkets Arena.
- Texas Tech has won the first half in each of its last 12 games at United Supermarkets Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the Kansas State Wildcats will win
- Texas Tech has lost three of its last four games as a top-15 AP-ranked team.
- Texas Tech has lost the first half in three of its last four games as a top-15 AP-ranked team.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Kansas State’s last 12 day games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 158 or fewer points.
- Twenty-five of Texas Tech’s last 28 day games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 158 or fewer points.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Prediction
Texas Tech should be big favorites, but I’m not excited to lay the big number given the injury to JT Toppin. There’s going to be adjustments, and it could take a while to figure out rotations. Texas Tech is also fresh off a bad loss to Arizona State. It could be tough to get off the canvas for Texas Tech, as this was a title contender and now just lost one of the best players in the country. Kansas State fired its coach and just beat Baylor, showing signs of life offensively. Kansas State also covered against Houston and nearly upset TCU. This is the best stretch of ball Kansas State has played all season. Give me the points.