Texas vs Xavier Prediction 3/19/25 College Basketball Picks Today
Xavier (21-11) vs. Texas (19-15)
March 19, 2025 9:10 pm EDT
The Line: Texas +2.5; Over/Under: 151.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Texas vs Xavier prediction for this College Basketball game on Wednesday, March 19 at the UD Arena in Dayton, OH. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this game in the Midwest Region – First Four of the NCAA Tournament. The winner of this game will meet Illinois in the 1st Round.
Xavier Musketeers Betting Preview
The Xavier Musketeers (21-11, 18-14 ATS) played their best basketball of the season late on as they recorded seven consecutive wins, their longest streak of the year. That run helped the Musketeers to clinch the No. 4 seed for the Big East tournament, but they slipped on the very first step as Marquette was better 89-87 in the quarterfinals. It was a disappointing tournament display for Xavier, who will be looking to squeeze into the Big Dance through the First Four.
Xavier is averaging 78.0 PPG (82nd) and is allowing 70.9 PPG (146th). The Musketeers are getting 33.7 RPG (316th) and dish out 16.9 APG (23rd). Zach Freemantle is the team’s top performer with 17.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.1 APG, and 1.0 SPG. Ryan Conwell has 16.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, and 1.3 SPG, while Dailyn Swain contributes 10.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, and a team-high 1.5 SPG.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
The Texas Longhorns (19-15, 16-17-1 ATS) unlike Xavier, went through their worst period of the season late on as they suffered seven of the final nine games. That caused the Longhorns to drop to the No. 13 seed in the SEC, but they did beat Vanderbilt in the opening round of the conference tournament and needed a double-overtime to see off Texas A&M in the second round. However, Tennessee stopped them in the quarterfinals.
Texas averages 78.4 PPG (73rd) and allows 72.2 PPG (195th). The Longhorns are 177th in rebounds (35.7) and 266th in assists (13.0). Tre Johnson leads the team with 19.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.8 APG, and a team-high 1.0 SPG. Arthur Kaluma follows him with 12.4 PPG and a team-high 7.6 RPG, while Jordan Pope chips in 11.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, and 1.0 SPG.
Why Xavier will beat Texas
- Xavier has won eight of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Texas has lost six of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Texas has lost the first half in each of its last three games against the Big East Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Xavier’s last eight night games against the Southeastern Conference have produced a total of 148 or fewer points.
- Twenty-eight of Texas’ last 34 games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 151 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas ranks T48th among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.8).
- Xavier ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for assists per game this season (17.0).
- Xavier ranks 23rd among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (16.8).
Texas vs Xavier Prediction
These teams have met on two occasions before and Texas won both games, the most recent in 2023. I am going with Xavier in this one, though, as the Musketeers are in better form and didn’t have luck against Marquette in the conference tourney. Texas is struggling despite a couple of SEC tournament wins and is just 3-7-0 ATS over the last ten games. I also think we’ll see a bunch of points, but I am backing Xavier to win and cover a modest spread. Xavier has covered the Spread in 19 of its last 33 games.
