VCU vs Dayton Prediction 3/15/26 College Basketball Picks Today

The Dayton Flyers and the VCU Rams meet Sunday in Atlantic 10 Tournament college basketball action from PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. Here’s a VCU vs. Dayton prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best VCU vs. pick.

VCU Rams Betting Preview

The Rams were sitting at 11-6 overall back on January 10 and they’d just lost consecutive games versus Saint Louis and George Mason. VCU hit a win streak over Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s, Davidson, Richmond, Loyola, Fordham, Dayton, La Salle, Richmond and George Washington before a loss to Saint Louis. Since then it’s been wins over Fordham, George Mason, Dayton, Duquesne and Saint Joseph’s for a 26-7 overall record this year.

On Saturday versus Saint Joseph’s in tournament play, the Rams came back out onto the floor after halftime with a huge 44-21 advantage. VCU was outscored 43-33 the rest of the way, cruising to a double-digit win 77-64 in the end. The Rams’ leading scorer was Terrence Hill with 18 points, while Jadrian Tracey added 15 points with three rebounds.

Dayton Flyers Betting Preview

Over on the Dayton side, they came out of the gate with 14 wins in their first 18 outings. Dayton would then hit a 1-6 run, though, with losses versus La Salle, Saint Joseph’s, Rhode Island, Saint Louis and VCU (alongside a victory versus St. Bonaventure) during that stretch. Following victories versus Davidson, George Mason, Duquesne, Saint Louis, George Washington and Richmond came a loss to VCU, then tournament victories versus St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis.

In the matchup with the Billikens during tournament action on Saturday, the Flyers came back out onto the court after halftime with a three-point deficit, 36-33. Dayton hit a 37-33 run in the second half, though, eventually powering out the comeback win 70-69 in a tight finish. Jordan Derkack led the way with 28 points with six boards and 12-of-15 on free throws. Javon Bennett added 17 points with four steals as well.

Dayton Flyers @ VCU Rams Betting Trends: March 15, 2026

Why the VCU Rams will win

• VCU has won each of its last 15 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• VCU has won the first half in each of its last 11 games.

Why the Dayton Flyers will win

• Dayton has won eight of its last nine games.
• Dayton has won the first half in eight of its last nine Sunday games against Conference opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• VCU ranks 12th among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (19.2).
• VCU ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (26.0).
• Dayton ranks 16th among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (14.9).
• Dayton ranks 16th among Division 1 teams for opponent assist to turnover ratio this season (0.83).

VCU vs Dayton Prediction

I’ll stick with Dayton, but I’m not touching it, as they’ve got plenty to address. The Flyers shot horrendously in their one-point victory over a very good Saint Louis team, hitting just 34.5 percent from the field. Dayton saved themselves with a nice outing at the line on 82.8 percent (24 of 29) and 19 points off 18 Billikens turnovers. It wasn’t the most glamorous game in the world, but a win is a win—especially in a conference tournament. Dayton has now won eight of their last nine but they’ve scored below 69 points in four of the last five. I’d like to see the points total (and the shooting percentage) come up in this one.

These teams have met twice this year, with Dayton losing both times. The Flyers fell 99-73 on the road on February 6 and 68-62 at home on March 6. In the home loss, Dayton didn’t shoot well from 3-point range at 18.2 percent (4-of-22) or the line at 53.3 percent (8-of-15) but did have an edge on the boards and in the paint. Dayton really needs to dig in and set the tone early in this one. I wish the line were a little thicker. Fewer than five or six points is pretty tight.