Virginia vs Florida State Prediction 3/4/25 College Basketball Picks Today

The Florida State Seminoles and the Virginia Cavaliers meet Tuesday in college basketball action from John Paul Jones Arena. Here’s a Virginia vs Florida State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Virginia vs Florida State pick.

Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview

Florida State was looking great in the record column by late January. Since then, however, the Seminoles have struggled a bit during some tough matchups. Florida State opened on a 7-1 run with a lone loss to Florida on November 15. A 6-4 stretch came next featuring losses to LSU, NC State, Louisville, and Clemson among wins versus Tulane, Winthrop, Syracuse, Miami, Pitt, and Georgia Tech. Florida State hit a 3-7 record over their next 10, beating only Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Miami. Otherwise, it was losses to Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, and North Carolina at that time. That would give the Seminoles a 16-12 overall run across the first 28 games of the year.

In their Saturday game versus Duke, the Seminoles were far behind by halftime, trailing by a 47-30 margin. Florida State didn’t end up getting any closer on a 53-35 run from there and took the blowout road loss 100-65 in the end. The only starter to finish in double-figures was Jamir Watkins with 21 points, eight rebounds, and three assists. Jerry Deng was top off the bench with 12 points and one rebound in 24 minutes, while Daquan Davis chipped in eight points with two rebounds in 19 minutes of his own.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

Over on the Virginia side, they’ve had their ups and downs so far this season as well. The Cavaliers managed an 8-5 start to the season across their first 13 outings, taking losses to Tennessee, St. John’s, Florida, SMU, and Memphis in that stretch. After a losing streak versus Louisville, Cal, Stanford, SMU, and Louisville again, Virginia hit a 5-2 run with losses to only Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. Otherwise, it was wins over Boston College, Miami, Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech at that time. After consecutive losses to Duke and North Carolina, Virginia got a win over Wake Forest to improve their record to an even 14-14 across the first 28 games of the 2024-25 campaign.

Matched up against Clemson over the weekend, the Cavs had a somewhat surprising 32-27 edge at halftime. Virginia came back down to earth after that, however, getting outscored 44-26 in the second half on the way to a 71-58 loss. Isaac McKneely led the team with 16 points, three rebounds, and two blocks in 39 minutes. Andrew Rohde added 12 points with three rebounds and five assists, while Dai Dai Ames came off the bench for 12 points and one block in 28 minutes on the floor. Elijah Saunders chipped in nine points with six rebounds as well.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win

• Virginia has won 26 of its last 29 night games at John Paul Jones Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Florida State has lost six of its last seven road games.
• Virginia has won the first half in each of its last four night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Florida State Seminoles will win

• The road team has won eight of Virginia’s last 10 games.
• Virginia has lost four of its last five home games.
• Florida State has won the first half in five of its last six night games against Virginia.

Virginia vs Florida State Prediction

I’ll lean toward Virginia here, but I’m probably avoiding this one. The Cavaliers had a good first half against a talented Clemson team over the weekend but fell short in the end. Virginia shot 42.3 percent from the field and held the Tigers to just one 3-pointer in their 10 attempts. That said, Virginia was outmuscled on the boards 38-28 and had 10 turnovers for 14 Clemson points in the defeat. That gives the Cavaliers three losses in their last four games, with fewer than 67 points scored in all three of those.

As for Florida State, they were outmatched in their latest loss to Duke, shooting just 38.6 percent from the field with a 49-32 rebounding deficit and 14 turnovers for 21 Blue Devils points. The Seminoles did pretty well from the line (14-of-17 for 82.4 percent) but then again so did Duke (28-of-34 for 82.4 percent). FSU has given up 89 or more points in three straight, so if Virginia can get their offense going I think the Cavs will be in good shape.