Virginia vs Louisville Prediction 1-4-25 College Basketball Picks

The Louisville Cardinals and the Virginia Cavaliers meet Saturday in college basketball action from John Paul Jones Arena. Here’s a Virginia vs Louisville prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Virginia vs Louisville pick.

Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview

The Cardinals kicked off the season on a very nice run. The lone blemish in their first six games was a blowout loss to an undefeated Tennessee team. Otherwise, it was wins over Morehead State, Bellarmine, Winthrop, Indiana, and West Virginia in those half-dozen outings. A rough stretch of games followed in the next five outings for Louisville, however. In that span, the only win was over UTEP. Otherwise, it was losses to Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Duke, and Kentucky at that time. Since then, the Cardinals have recovered very well with three straight wins. Those have come courtesy of Florida State, Eastern Kentucky, and North Carolina in succession.

Matched up against North Carolina on New Year’s Day in their last outing, the Cardinals came out of halftime looking at a 37-31 advantage. Louisville was able to hang on during a 46-39 run from there and took the victory 83-70 in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Chucky Hepburn with 26 points, seven assists, and two rebounds. Reyne Smith had a nice effort off the bench, providing 17 points and three steals. Also in double-figures were James Scott with 11 points and eight rebounds, and J’Vonne Hadley with 10 points, seven boards, and three assists.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

Over on the Virginia side, they started out well this year with three straight wins. Those victories came over Campbell, Coppin State, and Villanova. The Cavs would go 2-2 over the next four outings with losses to Tennessee and St. John’s prior to wins versus Manhattan and Holy Cross. Virginia only beat Bethune-Cookman in the next four, otherwise falling to Florida, SMU, and Memphis. Since then it’s been a pair of wins over American and NC State, however.

Matched up against NC State on New Year’s Eve, the Cavaliers came out of the break sporting a 39-29 deficit. Virginia woke up in the second half on a 41-28 run and took the comeback victory 70-67. Top in scoring was Elijah Saunders with 22 points, five rebounds and two assists. Isaac McKneely added 14 points with three rebounds and three assists, while Andrew Rhode was also in double-figures on 11 points, three rebounds, and seven assists. Leading the team off the bench was Ishan Sharma with six points and one rebound in 15 minutes of work.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win

• Virginia has won each of its last 11 day games at John Paul Jones Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Louisville has lost 16 of its last 17 day games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.
• Louisville has lost the first half in each of its last six games at John Paul Jones Arena.

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• Louisville has won eight of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Louisville has won the first half in each of its last four games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Virginia vs Louisville Prediction

I’ll stick with Louisville. This should be a pretty good matchup regardless, though. The Cardinals played pretty well against a decent North Carolina team in their last outing, shooting 44.8 percent from the field with a 43-37 rebounding advantage and just eight turnovers. The 3-point shooting could have been better however (23.1 percent on 6-of-26), as could the free throw shooting (25-of-39 for 64.1 percent). All of that said, it was still a solid showing.

Louisville is scoring great over this 4-1 stretch. They’ve hit 77 or more points in every game. Another outing like that and the Cardinals will be in great shape for Saturday’s finish.

As for Virginia, they played a pretty miserable first half against NC State but to their credit, the team recovered and pulled off the comeback win. The Cavs hit 54.2 percent from the field in that one with 45 percent (9-of-20) from 3-point range. The only rough spot was the rebounding, as Virginia got outfoxed 34-22 on the boards (13-3 offensive). That could turn into a liability here.

Prior to Tuesday’s 70-point outburst, Virginia had been in a scoring slump, finishing below 70 points in six straight games. The Cavs are going to want to keep the scoring to a minimum here, and the pace relatively slow. If they can’t do that, Louisville should walk away with the cover in the end.