ACC: Miami-FL vs Duke 10/22/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Miami Hurricanes and Duke Blue Devils clash Saturday in a week 8 ACC college football game from Hard Rock Stadium.

The Duke Blue Devils will try to bounce back from back-to-back losses, falling to 4-3 on the year after a 38-35 loss to North Carolina last time out. Riley Leonard has thrown for 1,557 yards, 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 66% passing while also rushing for a team-high 420 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jordan Waters has 363 rushing yards with a team-high 6 touchdowns while Jaylen Coleman has 307 rushing yards with 4 scores and Jaquez Moore has 251 rushing yards and a pair of TDs. Jalon Calhoun has a team-high 29 grabs for 411 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns while Eli Pancol has 296 receiving yards and Jordan Moore has 280 receiving yards coming on 27 catches. Three more Blue Devils each have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Darius Joiner has a team-high 57 total tackles with 40 solo tackles while DeWayne Carter and Ja’Mion Franklin each have 2.5 sacks to lead Duke this season.

The Miami Hurricanes will hope to build some momentum after a 20-14 win over Virginia Tech on the road last time out to improve to 3-3 on the year as a result. Tyler Van Dyke has thrown for 1,656 yards, 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 63.8% passing while Henry Parrish Jr. has a team-high 378 rushing yards and 4 TDs and Thaddius Franklin Jr. has 5 rushing scores this season. Will Mallory leads Miami’s receiving group with 23 grabs for 304 yards while Brashard Smith and Frank Ladson Jr. each have 200+ receiving yards this season. Six more Hurricanes have at least 100 receiving yards this season. On defense, Corey Flagg Jr. has a team-high 35 total tackles with 2.5 sacks while Jahfari Harvey also has 2.5 sacks and Akheem Mesidor has a team-high 5 sacks as part of Miami’s 21 sacks as a team this year.

Duke is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall while the under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 October games. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 4-1 in their last 5 conference games.

I get the case to be made for Duke as an underdog, as this Duke team has shown lots of improvement under Mike Elko. However, Duke’s still lost back-to-back games against a bad Georgia Tech team and last week’s game against UNC I think was only close because the Tar Heels’ defense is one of the worst in the country. On the other side, the Hurricanes have been burning money in people’s pockets ATS this season. Instead, I’m backing the under here. I could see this being a 28-21 kind of game or something similar, a game that hangs around the low- to mid-50s but I don’t see this one turning into a shootout and reaching the 60s. Give me the under here.