Air Force vs Boise State Prediction Football Picks Today 9/20/25

Air Force and Boise State meet Saturday in Week 4 college football action from Falcon Stadium. Here’s a Air Force vs Boise State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Air Force Falcons vs Boise State Broncos pick. 

Big Game for Boise State

It’s a big-time game for Boise State after an inconsistent start to the season. In the first game of the season against South Florida, Boise State looked awful, and they were blown out 34-7. In the last game though, they bounced back in a big way, and they were able to knock off Eastern Washington 51-14. At the end of the first quarter, Boise State was up 20-0, and they never looked back on the way to the win. Boise State had 637 total yards and 309 of them were through the air. Maddux Madsen was under center and he completed 16 of his 26 passes for 307 yards and two touchdowns. Wide receiver Dylan Riley finished with 6 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown. 

Boise State is averaging 29 points per game while its defense is giving up 24 points per game. The offense is ranked 72nd in all of college football, but in the first game, they were so bad. They need to get out to a much faster start here. 

Why Boise State Will Beat Air Force

• The favorite has won 22 of Boise State’s last 23 games.
• Air Force has lost each of its last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Air Force has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Boise State has covered the spread in four of its last five games against teams from Colorado.

How Does Air Force Bounce Back?

Air Force looked good in the first game against Bucknell, but in the last game, the defense wasn’t good enough. Air Force faced off agianst Utah State, and they scored 30 points, but the defense gave up 49 points, and that led to the defeat. At halftime they were down 14-10, but in the second half the defense had some major issues, and that led to the defeat. Liam Szurka and Josh Johnson both played under center. Johnson completed 5 of his 9 passes for 119 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. Cade Harris was the top guy on the ground putting up 72 carries on eight carries. 

Air Force on the season is averaging 39.5 points while their defense is giving up 31 points per game. The offense is good, but I am not sold on the defense, and they are going to need the defense to be a whole lot better. 

Why Air Force Will Beat Boise State

• Air Force has won each of its last three games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Air Force has covered the spread in six of its last seven games.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven road games in September.

Air Force vs Boise State Prediction

Give me Boise State in a big way in this game. Boise State obviously didn’t look great in the first game, but they are much better than they showed there. Air Force’s defense is giving up 31 points per game, and thier defense is going to be a major issue here. Madsen looked impressive in the last start, and he’s going to have another big game here. Air Force is averaging 39.5 points, but their offense isn’t going to be close to getting to that number here. Boise State has the better quarterback play, and the Broncos will get the job done. Back Bosie State against the spread.