Air Force vs Hawai’i Prediction Football Picks Today 9/27/25

Air Force and Hawaii meet Saturday in Week 5 college football action from Falcon Stadium. Here’s an Air Force vs Hawaii prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Air Force Falcons vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors pick.

What an Awful Loss for Hawaii

Hawaii has been up and down to start the season, and they are coming off a very disappointing loss. Hawaii was at home against a very beatable Fresno State team, and they couldn’t make the winning plays late. Hawaii was outscored 10-6 in the 4th quarter, and that ended up leading to the loss. Turnovers were a major issue, and they can’t continue to turn the ball over again. Micah Alejado was under center and he completed 28 of his 47 passes for 219 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. Pofele Ashlock was the top receiver and he caught eight passes for 68 yards. 

Before that game, Hawaii had won three of the four games with the only loss coming against Arizona. Two games ago against Portland State, Hawaii ended up getting knocked off 23-3. Hawaii on the season is averaging 22 points while their defense is giving up 21.2 points per game. The offense is ranked 101st while the defense is ranked 59th. 

Why the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will win

• Air Force has lost each of its last three September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The road team has won three of the last four games between Hawaii and Air Force.
• Air Force has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Hawaii has covered the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog against teams from Colorado.

Air Force is Struggling

Air Force is struggling coming into this game and they have lost two games in a row. In the first game of the season, the Falcons knocked off Bucknell 49-13, but since that point they have lost to Utah State 49-30 and to Boise State 49-37. The offense was sure impressive against the Broncos, but the defense just didn’t make the stops that it needed. Liam Szarka is under center, and he completed 13 of his 18 passes for 246 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Szarka also rushed 20 times for 110 yards and a touchdown. 

Air Force on the season is averaging 38.67 points while their defense is giving up 37 points per game. The offense is ranked 32nd in college football while the defense is ranked 128th. The offense is fine, it really needs to be the defense that is better. If this game becomes a shootout, Air Force could be in trouble. 

Why the Air Force Falcons will win

• Hawaii has lost each of its last eight September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Air Force has won 28 of its last 35 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Falcon Stadium.
• Hawaii has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games in September.
• Air Force has covered the spread in six of its last eight games.

Air Force vs Hawaii Prediction

Air Force and Hawaii are going to be involved in a shootout here. Air Force isn’t your typical service school team as they actually throw the ball, and they are going to find success through the air again. They are averaging 38.67 points per game, and they are going to run up the score. Hawaii on the other hand likes to play fast and they also will find a lot more success with the offense against a terrible defense. This game is going to be a shootout and the over is going to end up cashing.