Auburn Tigers (5-6) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3)
November 30, 2024 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5 / Auburn Tigers +11.5; Over/Under: +51.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Auburn Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet Saturday in college football action from Bryant-Denny Stadium. Here’s an Alabama vs Auburn prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Alabama vs Auburn pick.
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview
Auburn went just 2-4 over their first six games this year, falling to California, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Georgia. The next four were a 2-2 run with losses to Missouri and Vanderbilt mixed with wins over Kentucky and LA-Monroe.
In their Saturday game versus Texas A&M, Auburn fought through a whopping four overtimes to eventually pull off the upset victory 43-41. The Tigers’ Payton Thorne finished with 301 yards, two scores and one interception. Jarquez Hunter rushed 28 times for 130 yards and three touchdowns of his own.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview
Over on the Alabama side, they beat Western Kentucky, South Florida, Wisconsin and Georgia before a loss to Vanderbilt. The Tide hit a 4-1 run over the next five with wins versus South Carolina, Missouri, LSU and Mercer alongside a lone loss to Tennessee.
Matched up against Oklahoma last weekend, Alabama posted a first-quarter field goal and was blanked the rest of the way in a miserable 24-3 upset loss. Jalen Milroe threw for just 164 yards and three picks. Jamarion Miller led the rushers on 12 carries for 45 yards, and Germie Bernard had four catches for 60 yards.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide will win
- Alabama has won each of its last 20 games against conference opponents at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
- Auburn has lost 14 of its last 15 games against AP-ranked teams.
- The home team has covered the spread in each of the last seven games between Auburn and Alabama.
- Auburn has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five November games as a road underdog against top-15 AP-ranked teams.
- Alabama has won the first quarter in each of its last four games against conference opponents at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
- Alabama has won the first half in 32 of its last 37 games against conference opponents at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Why the Auburn Tigers will win
- The underdog has won three of Auburn’s last four games.
- Auburn has covered the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog.
- Alabama has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Auburn’s last five November games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Alabama’s last four home games in November have gone OVER the total points line.
Alabama vs Auburn Prediction
I’ll go with Alabama. That said, Auburn’s upset win last weekend—and Alabama’s upset loss—add another layer of intrigue to this one. You could certainly make a great case for the Tigers. That said, the Tide didn’t really look like themselves in the Oklahoma game after demolishing Mercer the week before. Alabama was out of sorts all day, posting just 234 yards (164 passing) and 13 first downs. The defense was cut to ribbons by 257 Sooners rush yards and couldn’t get off the field. It was the first time in a four-game span that the Tide had failed to register at least 34 points.
As for Auburn, they’re coming off an exhilarating—and exhausting—win over Texas A&M. The Tigers held the ball for just 23:25 of game time and committed nine penalties but still pulled off the upset win at home. With a big rivalry road matchup with sizable implications incoming this weekend, I’m not sure Auburn will be able to muster another big performance like that up against an angry Alabama squad. Should be a great matchup to watch regardless, though.
