Arkansas State vs Missouri State Prediction Football Picks Today 12/18/25

In this article we will formulate an Arkansas State vs Missouri State prediction for this College Football game on Thursday, December 18th at the Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this matchup in bowl season.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 6-6 (5-3) this season after they defeated Appalachian State by a score of 30-29 in their last game. Arkansas State was tied at 16 at halftime, but they trailed 29-23 in the fourth quarter, before scoring a touchdown with 42 seconds left for the victory. The Red Wolves were out gained by a total of 453-448, went 7-17 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-1 in the game. Jaylen Raynor went 32-47 for 363 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Kenyon Clay rushed 14 times for 52 yards and one score. Chauncy Cobb led the receivers with five receptions for 117 yards in the win. 

Prior to that game, Arkansas State lost to Louisiana by a score of 34-30 and Southern Miss by a score of 27-21. The Red Wolves have lost two of their last three games and they finished tied for second in the Sun Belt West standings. Arkansas State has scored 24.4 points per game with 257.2 passing yards and 127.5 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 27.3 points against per game this season. Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 3,073 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Corey Rucker has 69 receptions for 866 yards this season. 

Missouri State Bears Betting Preview

The Missouri State Bears are 7-5 (5-3) this year after they lost to Louisiana Tech by a score of 42-30 in their last game. Missouri State trailed 14-10 at halftime and they allowed 28 points in the second half for the loss. The Bears were out gained by a total of 475-416, went 6-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle 1-0 in the game. Jacob Clark went 17-31 for 294 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Shomari Lawrence rushed 13 times for 84 yards and one score. Jeron Askren led the receivers with one catch for 75 yards and one touchdown in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Missouri State lost to Kennesaw State by a score of 41-34, but did beat UTEP by a score of 38-24 before that. The Bears have lost two games in a row and they finished tied for fourth in the CUSA standings. Missouri State has scored 25.4 points per game with 273.9 passing yards and 117.9 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 28.3 points against per game this season. Jacob Clark has thrown for 2,895 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Shomari Lawrence has rushed for 964 yards and seven scores on 183 carries this year. 

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won each of its last three games against teams from Missouri.
• Arkansas State has covered the spread in three of its last four games against teams from Missouri.
• Arkansas State has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.

Why the Missouri State Bears will win

• The underdog has won six of Arkansas State’s last seven games.
• Arkansas State has lost four of its last five games in Texas.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Arkansas State’s last seven games.
• Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against opponents from the Conference USA.
• Arkansas State has lost the first half in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Arkansas State’s last six games in Texas have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Missouri State’s last five games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Player Prop Facts

• Jaylen Raynor has recorded 25+ completions in three consecutive games (including postseason) – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into the bowl games.

Missouri State Bears Player Prop Facts

• Jacob Clark has recorded 275+ passing yards in four consecutive games (including postseason) – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into the bowl games.

Matchup/League Facts

• Arkansas State ranks 130th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (9.4).
• Arkansas State ranks T127th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (3.1).
• Missouri State ranks T119th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-2.7).
• Missouri State ranks T117th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (8.6).

Arkansas State vs Missouri State Prediction 

Both of these teams managed to make it to a bowl game this year, but they both struggled over the last few weeks of the season. Arkansas State allowed 83 points in their last two games, but they did manage to score at least 30 points in each of their last three. Missouri State has also had some defensive issues, as they have allowed 27+ in three straight games, but they have scored 30 points in each of their last two. We have seen plenty of scoring from each team and with the defenses struggling, I like the over here. 

David Racey is 161-136 (54%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. David went 2-0 in College Football on Tuesday night. Click here for his premium plays for the week!