Troy Trojans (1-6) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-3)
October 26, 2024 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Arkansas State Red Wolves -7.5 / Troy Trojans +7.5; Over/Under: -
(Get latest betting odds)
The Troy Trojans and the Arkansas State Red Wolves will meet on Saturday in college football action from Centennial Bank Stadium. Here’s an Arkansas State vs Troy prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Arkansas State vs Troy pick.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The Trojans started off their season with a trio of losses, falling to Nevada, Memphis, and Iowa. Troy would get into the win column in game four with a victory over Florida A&M 34-12. The next pair were losses to LA-Monroe and Texas State, however.
In their last outing on October 15 versus South Alabama, the Trojans took another defeat. After a 19-3 deficit in the first half, Troy ended up falling 25-9. QB Matthew Caldwell finished with 142 yards, one TD, and two picks. Devonte Ross led the receivers with seven grabs for 70 yards and a score.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
Over on the Arkansas State side, they beat Central Arkansas and Tulsa in their first pair before losses to Michigan 28-18 and Iowa State 52-7. The Red Wolves would beat South Alabama in game five before another loss to Texas State 41-9.
Matched up against Southern Miss on Saturday, the Red Wolves put up a 16-7 advantage in the second half to finish off a 44-28 win. QB Jaylen Raynor logged 186 yards with three scores. Ja’Quez Cross carried 18 times for 127 yards and a TD.
Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win
- Troy has lost seven of its last eight games.
- Arkansas State has won seven of its last eight games at Centennial Bank Stadium.
- Arkansas State has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 October games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Troy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games.
- Arkansas State has won the first half in five of its last six home games against conference opponents.
- Arkansas State has won the first quarter in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
Why the Troy Trojans will win
- Troy has won seven of its last eight road games against conference opponents.
- Arkansas State has lost 13 of its last 17 games in October.
- Troy has covered the spread in eight of its last nine road games against conference opponents.
- Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Troy has won the first half in six of its last eight games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Troy’s last eight October games against non-AP-ranked teams has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of Arkansas State’s last six October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Arkansas State ranks 131st among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (3.7).
- Arkansas State ranks 127th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (221.1).
- Troy ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
- Troy ranks T125th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (33.3).
Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction
I’ll stick with Arkansas State. The Red Wolves gave up 21 points in the first half of their latest win over Southern Miss but ultimately finished strong. Arkansas State posted 467 yards total (281 rushing) with 23 first downs. That said, the 3-of-14 on third-down tries and nine penalties didn’t help their cause.
As for Troy, they didn’t play too badly on defense in the South Alabama game, giving up 318 yards (160 rushing), 12 first downs, and 5-of-15 on third-down tries. The Trojans posted just 172 yards of offense (36 rushing) however, along with 14 first downs and 3.0 yards per play. I’d imagine Troy will look better here but I don’t think they’ll cover.
