Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6)
November 1, 2025 4:00 pm EDT
The Line: Arkansas Razorbacks -4 / Mississippi State Bulldogs 4; Over/Under: 68.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Mississippi State Bulldogs and Arkansas Razorbacks meet Saturday in college football action at Razorback Stadium. Here’s a Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction. This article will include a Arkansas vs Mississippi State Pick.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
The Mississippi State Bulldogs lost to Florida and texas, and they play Georgia next. Mississippi State has lost 4 straight games. Blake Shapen is completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 1,906 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III have combined for 1,151 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, while Seydou Traore has 19 receptions.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs ground game is averaging 164.1 yards per contest, and Davon Booth leads the way with 470 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, Mississippi State is allowing 23.4 points and 260.9 yards per game. Jahron Manning leads the Mississippi State Bulldogs with 60 tackles, Will Whitson has 2 sacks and Brylan Lanier has 3 interceptions.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
The Arkansas Razorbacks lost to Texas A&M and Auburn, and they play LSU next. The Arkansas Razorbacks have lost 6 straight games. Taylen Green is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 2,178 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. O’Mega Blake and Rohan Jones have combined for 1,051 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, while Raylen Sharpe has 25 receptions.
The Arkansas Razorbacks ground game is averaging 225.3 yards per contest, and Mike Washington Jr. leads the way with 712 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Arkansas is allowing 32.7 points and 443.9 yards per game. Xavian Sorey Jr. leads the Arkansas Razorbacks with 59 tackles, Quincy Rhodes Jr. has 7 sacks and Julian Neal has 2 interceptions.
Why the Arkansas Razorbacks will win
- Mississippi State has lost each of its last 16 games against conference opponents.
- The favorite has won 16 of Mississippi State’s last 17 games.
- Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The home team has covered the spread in six of Mississippi State’s last seven games.
- Mississippi State has lost the first half in each of its last eight road games against conference opponents.
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win
- Arkansas has lost each of its last seven games against conference opponents.
- Mississippi State has won five of its last six road games against Arkansas.
- Arkansas has failed to cover the spread in each of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.
- Mississippi State has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 road games in November.
- Arkansas has lost the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.
- Mississippi State has won the first quarter in each of its last three road games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Arkansas’ last 10 games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of Mississippi State’s last nine November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Arkansas Razorbacks Player Prop Facts
- O’Mega Blake has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 10 consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 10.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts
- Will Whitson has recorded at least one sack in three consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 10.
Matchup/League Facts
- Arkansas has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10 points or less of any FBS team this season (3).
- Arkansas has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (2).
- Mississippi State has given up the largest 3rd quarter lead to win a game this season – 17 points vs Texas.
- Mississippi State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (10.3).
Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction
Two teams heading in the wrong direction, Arkansas is going to get the nod from oddsmakers because of home field. However, I’m not a fan of laying chalk with a team that can’t defend, and Arkansas is 124th in total defense and 121st in scoring defense. It’s the reason the Razorbacks are where they are this season. Mississippi State is the more balanced team and is also 7-1 ATS on the season. Despite the losses, Mississippi State is competing and making bettors money. Mississippi State doesn’t win, but has covered 9 of its last 12 games as an underdog. That’s good enough for me. Give me Mississippi State and the points.
