Ole Miss Rebels (6-2) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-3)
November 2, 2024 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: Arkansas Razorbacks +6.5 / Ole Miss Rebels -6.5; Over/Under: +61.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Ole Miss Rebels and the Arkansas Razorbacks meet Saturday in college football action from Razorback Stadium. Here’s an Arkansas vs Ole Miss prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Arkansas vs Ole Miss pick.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview
The Rebels got off to a high-octane start this year, scoring 40 or more points in wins over Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern. Ole Miss came down to earth with losses to Kentucky and LSU (around a win over South Carolina) in the next trio.
In their matchup with Oklahoma, the Rebels turned a 14-10 halftime deficit into a 26-14 win with a strong second half. QB Jaxson Dart finished with 311 yards and a touchdown. Caden Prieskorn caught five balls for 71 yards and a TD to lead the receivers.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
Over on the Arkansas side, they went 3-1 over their first four with a loss to Oklahoma State (OT) amid wins versus AR-Pine Bluff, UAB, and Auburn. The Razorbacks beat Tennessee on October 5 between losses to Texas A&M and LSU.
Matched up against Mississippi State, the Razorbacks scored double-digit points in every quarter along the way to a 58-25 blowout win. QB Taylen Green threw for 314 yards, five TDs, and a pick. Braylen Russell rushed 16 times for 175 yards, while Andrew Armstrong caught four balls for 76 yards.
Why the Arkansas Razorbacks will win
- Arkansas has won each of its last three November games as an underdog against Ole Miss.
- Ole Miss has lost six of its last eight road games in November.
- Ole Miss has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Arkansas has covered the spread in 10 of its last 11 games against Ole Miss.
- Arkansas has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Why the Ole Miss Rebels will win
- Ole Miss has won 14 of its last 15 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Arkansas has lost 10 of its last 11 November games against AP-ranked teams.
- Arkansas has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.
- The team ranked 19th in the AP Poll has covered the spread in each of its last four games.
- Arkansas has lost the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Ole Miss’ last seven games as a favorite has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Arkansas’ last six games in November has gone OVER the total points line.
Arkansas vs Ole Miss Prediction
I’ll go with Arkansas. The Razorbacks looked great against a struggling Mississippi State team last weekend, compiling 673 yards (359 rushing), 10.2 yards per play, and 30 first downs. On defense, Arkansas posted five takeaways but also gave up 471 yards. The third-down efficiency (0-for-7) was also pretty bad on offense, but overall it was a solid effort.
As for Ole Miss, they notched 380 yards (311 passing) and 6.2 yards per play in their win over Oklahoma. The Rebels posted a couple of fumble recoveries on defense and held the Sooners to 8-of-18 on third downs. This weekend Arkansas is going to have to rely on defense to keep the Rebels in check, as the Razorbacks offense normally has a bit to be desired this year. In a comfortable home game coming off a confidence-building win, however, I think Arkansas has a good shot at a cover here.
