Auburn vs Ball State Prediction Football Picks Today 9/6/25

Auburn and Ball State meet Saturday in college football action from Jordan-Hare. Here’s an Auburn vs Ball State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Auburn Tigers vs Ball State Cardinals pick.

Ball State’s Offense is An Issue

Ball State’s offense is a major issue, at least that is what the first game showed. Ball State scored a grand total of zero points against Purdue, and that led to the 31-point defeat. As a team, they allowed Purdue to put up 433 yards, while they had only 203 yards. They finished the game with 116 rushing yards and 87 yards through the air. It’s not going to get easier here, but they need to get some better quarterback play.

Kiael Kelly completed 10 of his 16 passes for 87 yards. He also rushed 22 times for 63 yards. If he’s rushing the ball 22 times, they need him to have more than 63 yards. On defense, they had no answer for Ryan Bowne through the air as he threw for 311 yards and two touchdowns. 

What an Opening Game for Auburn

It was quite impressive for Auburn to start the season against the Baylor Bears. Auburn scored 38 points, and even though they gave up 24 points, it was still quite an impressive victory. The stats through the air might not have been elite for Jackson Arnold, but what he did on the ground sure opened up some eyes. He only threw for 108 yards, but added another 137 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

He also spread the ball around, but getting a player who steps up consistently is going to be key overall. On defense, they are going to need to be better against the pass. They allowed Baylor to throw for 483 yards. They did a good job against the run, but the way the defense performed was a major issue. ja

Why Auburn Will Beat Ball State

• Ball State has lost each of its last 12 September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Auburn has won four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Ball State has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 road games in September.
• Auburn has covered the spread in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.
• Auburn has won the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• Auburn ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• Auburn ranks T7th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (14.0).
• Ball State ranks 131st among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (340.0).
• Ball State ranks T131st among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-14.0).

Auburn vs Ball State Prediction 

This is just a few too many points to lay with Auburn. Is Auburn going to win? Yes they are. Are they going to win comfortably? Yes they are. That being said, this is a bit of a letdown spot after the big opening game win against a very good Baylor team. The way Auburn’s defense looked in the first game, they are going to allow Ball State to score a touchdown or two. I don’t see Auburn putting up 50 points here, and that will be the difference as Ball State is going to get the job done. Back Ball State to cover the spread.