Toledo Rockets (3-1) vs. Ball State Cardinals (1-3)
October 3, 2026 2:00 pm EDT
The Line: Ball State Cardinals 800 / Toledo Rockets -1350; Over/Under: 52.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Ball State vs Toledo prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 3rd at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, Indiana. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 5 matchup.
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview
The Ball State Cardinals are 1-3 (0-1) this season after they lost to Kent State by a score of 26-13 last week. Ball State trailed 17-0 at halftime, but they did win the second half 13-9 in the loss. The Cardinals were out gained by a total of 354-210, went 5-14 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. Tyler Mizzell threw for 164 yards and one touchdown, while Donovan Hamilton caught seven passes for 80 yards and one score. Jalen Bonds rushed 11 times for 36 yards and one touchdown in the loss.
Prior to that game, Ball State lost to Liberty by a score of 51-15, but did beat Stony Brook by a score of 41-17 before that. The Cardinals have scored 18.0 points per game with 158.3 passing yards and 118.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 37.5 points against per game this season. Keldric Luster is the starting QB, but he is questionable, so we may see Tyler Mizzell once again.
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview
The Toledo Rockets are 3-1 (0-0) this year after they defeated San Diego State by a score of 41-16 last week. Toledo led 17-3 at halftime and they scored 24 points in the second half in the blowout win. The Rockets out gained SDSU by a total of 494-296, went 8-15 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. John Alan Richter threw for 284 yards and three touchdowns, while Bryson Hammer caught six passes for 133 yards and two scores. Autavius Ison rushed 15 times for 89 yards in the game.
Prior to that win, Toledo defeated Temple by a score of 49-48 and Central Connecticut by a score of 63-10. The Rockets have scored 43.3 points per game with 305.5 passing yards and 162.5 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 26.0 points against per game this season. John Alan Richter has thrown for 1,161 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception, while Bryson Hammer has 15 receptions for 286 yards and two scores this year.
Why the Ball State Cardinals will win
- The home team has won 16 of Ball State’s last 17 games.
- Toledo has lost four of its last five October games as a favorite.
- Ball State has covered the spread in each of its last eight October games as a home underdog.
- Toledo has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight October games as a road favorite.
- The home team has won the first quarter in each of Ball State’s last six games.
- The home team has won the first half in each of Ball State’s last six games.
Why the Toledo Rockets will win
- The favorite has won each of Ball State’s last nine games.
- Ball State has lost each of its last seven games as an underdog.
- The favorite has covered the spread in eight of Ball State’s last nine games.
- Ball State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog.
- Ball State has lost the first half in each of its last 11 games as an underdog against teams from Ohio.
- The favorite has won the first quarter in each of Ball State’s last nine games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Toledo’s last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of Ball State’s last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
Ball State Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Jalen Bonds ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
Toledo Rockets Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, John Alan Richter ranks 2nd in the league for TD:INT ratio (12.00) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Ball State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
- Ball State ranks 138th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (12.8).
- Toledo ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (13.0).
- Toledo ranks T4th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+10.8).
Ball State vs Toledo Prediction
Toledo comes into this matchup on a three game winning streak and they have scored 41+ points in all three of those wins. The Rockets did allow 48 points to Temple two games ago and they allowed 30 to MSU to open the season. Ball State hasn’t won a FBS game yet and they have allowed 51+ points in two of their three losses. The Cardinals may be without their starting QB once again and they have scored a total of 28 points in their last two games. Take Toledo to cover here.
