Ball State vs UConn Prediction 9/20/25 College Football Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Ball State vs UConn Prediction for this College Football Week 4 game on Saturday, September 20^th at the Pratt and Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

UConn Preview

Connecticut has a 1-2 record this season and are coming off a 41-44 road defeat in Delaware. Offensively, the Huskies average 40.0 points per game, which ranks 31st in the nation. Defensively, they allow 28.0 points per game, which ranks 101st in the nation. Connecticut averages 525.0 total yards per game, with 189.0 rushing yards and 336.0 passing yards per game. They allow 410.0 total yards per game, 140.0 of them rushing and 270.0 passing yards per game.

Joe Fagnano leads the Huskies with 70/106 completed passes and 865 total passing yards. He also adds 1 rushing touchdown. Camryn Edwards leads the team in rushing yards, with 306 and 3 touchdowns, while Jayden Brown adds 159 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. Skyler Bell has a team-high 22 caught passes for a team-high 332 receiving yards, and has 2 touchdowns. Reymello Murphy has caught 12 passes for 137 yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Defensively, Byrun Parham has a team-high 24 total tackles, 12 of them solo, and 5 sacks. D’Mon Brinson adds 15 total tackles, 11 of them solo and 1 interception. Byrun Parham leads the Huskies in sacks, with 5, while D’Mon Brinson has a team-high 1 interception.

Ball State Preview

Ball State has a 1-2 record this season and are coming off a 34-29 home victory over New Hampshire. Offensively, the Cardinals average 12.3 points per game, which ranks 130th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 34.0 points per game, which ranks 118th in the nation. Ball State averages 228.0 total yards per game, with 140.3 rushing yards and 87.7 passing yards per game. They allow 439.7 total yards per game, 149.7 of them rushing and 290.0 passing yards per game.

Kiael Kelly leads the Cardinals with 29/47 completed passes and 263 total passing yards. He also adds 143 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. Qua Ashley leads the team in rushing yards, with 209 and 2 touchdowns, while Kiael Kelly adds 143 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. Qua Ashley has a team-high 7 caught passes for 33 receiving yards, and has 1 touchdown. Eric Weatherly has caught 7 passes for 60 yards.

Defensively, Willizhuan Yates has a team-high 13 total tackles, 9 of them solo. Nathan Voorhis leads the Cardinals in sacks, with 3.5.

Ball State Cardinals @ Connecticut Huskies Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Connecticut Huskies will win

• Ball State has lost each of its last 17 road games in September.
• The favorite has won each of Connecticut’s last 12 games at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field.
• Connecticut has covered the spread in each of its last four home games in September.
• Ball State has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 14 September games as an underdog.
• Connecticut has won the first quarter in seven of its last nine home games against non-conference opponents.
• Ball State has lost the first half in each of its last 11 road games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Ball State Cardinals will win

• Connecticut has lost 25 of its last 30 games in September.
• Connecticut has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games as a favorite.
• Ball State has covered the spread in four of its last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Connecticut’s last five home games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of Ball State’s last seven games in September have gone OVER the total points line.

Connecticut Huskies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Bryun Parham ranks T1st amongst FBS players for sacks (5.0) this season.

Ball State Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, DeJuan Echoles Jr. leads the league for forced fumbles (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Connecticut has played in the highest number of games that went to overtime this season (2).
• Connecticut ranks 12th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (525.0).
• Ball State ranks 136th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (228.0).
• Ball State ranks 134th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (14.0).

Ball State vs UConn Prediction

In their only previous meeting back in 2022, Ball State won 25-21 at home, not covering the spread, as the game went under the point total.

In this Ball State vs UConn Prediction, UConn is coming as -20.5-point home favorites. Both teams are coming off opposite outcomes in their previous games, while UConn having back-to-back losses. On the flip side, Ball State is coming off their first win of the season and have covered the spread in their last two games, and have won outright their only previous meeting against UConn a couple of years ago. The Huskies are the favorite to win, and they probably will, but I don’t trust them to cover a 20+ point spread. Take Ball State and the +20.5 points in this one.