Ball State vs UMass Prediction Football Picks Today 11/4/26

Ball State vs UMass Prediction

In this Ball State vs UMass prediction, UMass is coming as -3.5 home favorites. UMass has a better record this season but has been struggling lately, having lost four straight games and is 1-3 against the spread. On the flip side, Ball State has back-to-back wins and is 4-0 against the spread in its last four and while they have worse numbers than UMass this season, the Minutemen’s offense has been ice-cold lately, having scored 19 points or less in each of their last four games. Their elite defense has been struggling as well, as they have allowed 29 points per game in their last two home games, so everything sets up nice for an upset in this matchup. I like the guests to keep this one close, so take Ball State and grab those +3.5 points in this one.

Massachusetts Minutemen Preview

Massachusetts has a 4-4 record and a 1-3 record in the MAC. They are coming off a 16-35 road loss against UConn and will face Toledo and Akron next.

Offensively, Massachusetts averages 26.5 points per game, ranking 84th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 21.1 points per game, which is 40th. Massachusetts averages 334.6 total yards per game (187.9 passing and 146.8 rushing), while allowing 324.1 total yards per game (142.3 rushing and 181.9 passing). They average 58.9 plays per game and 5.7 yards per play on offense, while allowing 67.0 plays per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense. Massachusetts averages 16.1 first downs per game on offense and 18.5 first downs per game on defense. They have turned the ball over 0.8 times per game and are forcing 1.6 turnovers per game.

William Watson III leads Massachusetts with 1,025 passing yards with 69.6% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Elijah Faulkner leads the team in rushing yards with 376, while T.Y. Harding has a team-high 327 receiving yards and 28 receptions. Defensively, Timmy Hinspeter has a team-high 72 total tackles (15 of them solo), while William Depaepe leads the team with 3.0 sacks.

Injury Report

• Elliott WR         Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 17, ’26
• Watson III QB          Questionable – Ankle       Oct 17, ’26
• Griffin Jr. WR         Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 17, ’26
• Harding WR         Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 17, ’26
• Washington RB          Out – Undisclosed             Oct 10, ’26

Ball State Cardinals Preview

Ball State has a 3-5 record and a 2-2 record in the MAC. They are coming off a 34-17 home win against Sacramento State and will face Buffalo and Ohio next.

Offensively, Ball State averages 22.0 points per game, ranking 107th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 35.2 points per game, which is 129th. Ball State averages 337.5 total yards per game (196.3 passing and 141.3 rushing), while allowing 422.9 total yards per game (183.1 rushing and 239.8 passing). They average 64.3 plays per game and 5.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing 65.8 plays per game and 6.4 yards per play on defense. Ball State averages 19.1 first downs per game on offense and 22.1 first downs per game on defense. They have turned the ball over 1.1 times per game and are forcing 0.8 turnovers per game.

Keldric Luster leads Ball State with 1,300 passing yards with 63.0% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. TJ Horton leads the team in rushing yards with 425, while Donovan Hamilton has a team-high 310 receiving yards and 25 receptions. Defensively, Sterling Smith and Kaleb Stewart have a team-high 37 total tackles (21 of them solo), while Kaleb Stewart leads the team with 2.5 sacks.

Injury Report

• Smith WR Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 18, ’26
• Breveard RB          Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 17, ’26
• Cooper WR         Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 17, ’26
• Hamilton WR         Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 17, ’26
• Riggins TE           Questionable – Undisclosed          Oct 17, ’26
• Coonrod TE           Out – Undisclosed             Oct 10, ’26
• Talbert WR         Out – Undisclosed             Sep 26, ’26

Ball State Cardinals @ Massachusetts Minutemen Betting Trends: Week 10

Why the Massachusetts Minutemen will win

• Ball State has lost 13 of its last 14 road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The home team has won 18 of Ball State’s last 21 games.
• Ball State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The home team has covered the spread in seven of Ball State’s last nine games.
• Massachusetts has won the first half in five of its last six games as a favorite.

Why the Ball State Cardinals will win

• Massachusetts has lost each of its last 11 games against conference opponents at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
• Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Ball State has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Massachusetts’ last seven November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Ball State’s last four road games in November have gone OVER the total points line.

Massachusetts Minutemen Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 10, T.Y. Harding leads Massachusetts for receptions (28) this season.

Ball State Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 10, TJ Horton leads the Mid-American Conference for yards per carry (6.3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Massachusetts ranks 15th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (4.0).
• Massachusetts ranks 122nd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (72.2).
• Ball State ranks T132nd among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-4.4).
• Ball State ranks 131st among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (35.3).