Air Force Falcons (1-1) vs. Baylor Bears (1-1)
September 14, 2024 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Baylor Bears -14.5 / Air Force Falcons +14.5; Over/Under: +43
(Get latest betting odds)
The Air Force Falcons and the Baylor Bears will meet Saturday in college football action from McLane Stadium. Here’s a Baylor vs Air Force prediction. We will be looking at this from a betting perspective and determining the best Baylor vs Air Force pick.
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview
The Falcons kicked off their 2024 campaign with a solid win over Merrimack College. Air Force took a 14-0 lead into the fourth quarter and held on for the win 21-6. QB John Busha finished with 71 yards on 6-of-14 passing and Owen Allen led the rush with 63 yards.
In game two versus San Jose State, the Falcons trailed 14-7 by the second quarter and couldn’t score from there in a 17-7 loss. Busha logged just 54 passing yards and two picks. Cade Harris was tops in rushing with eight carries for 50 yards and a score. Air Force will play against Wyoming following this one.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
Over on the Baylor side, they didn’t have any issues versus Tarleton State in their opener. The Bears scored double-digit points in both the first and fourth quarters during a 45-3 blowout victory. Dequan Finn logged 192 passing yards, two scores, and two picks along the way.
Matched up against Utah over the weekend, Baylor was down 23-3 by the break. The Bears got better from there but still lost 23-12. Finn threw for 115 yards and one TD on 9-of-21 passing. Josh Cameron logged two catches for 59 yards and a score.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- Baylor has won 13 of its last 14 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Air Force has lost five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Air Force has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The home team has covered the spread in four of Baylor’s last five games.
- Baylor has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents at McLane Stadium.
- Baylor has won the first quarter in eight of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents at McLane Stadium.
Why the Air Force Falcons will win
- Air Force has won four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has lost six of its last nine games as a favorite.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games as a favorite.
- Air Force has covered the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Air Force has won the first half in six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Five of Air Force’s last six games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Baylor’s last five games as a home favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Baylor ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- Baylor ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage this season (1.000).
- Air Force ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- Air Force ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
Baylor vs Air Force Prediction
I’ll lean toward Baylor. Both teams are coming off pretty rough offensive outings (especially via the pass), however. In the Bears’ case, they posted just 223 total yards (115 passing), 12 first downs, and 4-of-16 on third-down tries against a tough Utah squad. Baylor was pretty good on defense though, holding the Utes to just 292 total yards (122 passing) and 15 first downs.
As for Air Force, they posted 197 total yards (54 passing), two picks, 11 first downs, and 3-of-16 on third-down conversions in their Saturday loss. This weekend’s matchup isn’t going to get any easier.
