BYU Cougars (4-0) vs. Baylor Bears (2-2)
September 28, 2024 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: Baylor Bears -3.5 / BYU Cougars +3.5; Over/Under: +45.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The BYU Cougars and Baylor Bears meet Saturday in week 5 college football action at McLane Stadium. Here’s a Baylor vs BYU Prediction. This article will include a Baylor vs BYU Pick.
BYU Cougars Betting Preview
The BYU Cougars beat Wyoming, SMU and Kansas State, and they play Arizona next. BYU looks for its first 5-0 start since the 2021 season. Jake Retzlaff is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 990 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter have combined for 425 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Keelan Marion has 7 receptions.
The BYU Cougars ground game is averaging 136.3 yards per contest, and Retzlaff leads the way with 103 yards on 28 carries. Defensively, BYU is allowing 12.8 points and 269 yards per game. Harrison Taggart leads the BYU Cougars with 25 tackles, Jack Kelly has 3 sacks and Marque Collins has 1 interception.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Baylor Bears beat Air Force, lost to Colorado and plays Iowa State next. Baylor has lost 5 of its last 7 home games. Sawyer Robertson is completing 64 percent of his passes for 463 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins have combined for 260 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Michael Trigg has 10 receptions.
The Baylor Bears ground game is averaging 167 yards per contest, and Dawson Pendergrass leads the way with 157 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Baylor is allowing 16.8 points and 280.8 yards per game. Matt Jones leads the Baylor Bears with 38 tackles, Garmon Randolph has 2.5 sacks and Keaton Thomas has 1 interception.
Why the BYU Cougars will win
- Baylor has lost each of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
- BYU has won 13 of its last 14 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- BYU has covered the spread in each of its last six games.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has lost the first half in each of its last five home games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Baylor’s last four games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of BYU’s last six September games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Baylor ranks T12th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (1.8).
- Baylor ranks T12th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (4.3).
- BYU ranks T6th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (0.8).
- BYU ranks 7th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (13.3).
Baylor vs BYU Prediction
The Baylor Bears may be the more talented team, but they’re questionable defensively, and it’s going to be interesting to see how they respond to that brutal last second loss to Colorado. A loss like that could have a carry-over effect. Also, I’ve been high on BYU since the start of the season and even said be careful last week when the Cougars played Kansas State. BYU dominated that game as 7.5 point underdogs. BYU has covered 6 straight games and has a top-20 rush defense and scoring defense. I want the points in this spot, and wouldn’t be surprised if Baylor comes out a little flat after what happened last week.
