Kansas State Wildcats (2-3) vs. Baylor Bears (3-2)
October 4, 2025 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: Baylor Bears -6.5 / Kansas State Wildcats 6.5; Over/Under: 61.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Baylor vs Kansas State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 4th at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 6 matchup.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Baylor Bears are 3-2 (1-1) this year after they defeated Oklahoma State by a score of 45-27 last week. Baylor led 28-20 at halftime and 35-27 in the fourth quarter, but they scored 10 points in the fourth to pull away in the victory. The Bears out gained Oklahoma State by a total of 612-448, went 7-14 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Sawyer Robertson went 24-35 for 393 yards and four touchdowns, while Caden Knighten carried the ball five times for 81 yards. Josh Cameron led the receivers with six catches for 98 yards in the game. The Baylor defense recorded one sack and four tackles for loss in the victory.
In their first four games, Baylor lost to Auburn, beat SMU and Samford, and lost to Arizona State. The Bears are averaging 36.6 points per game with 349.4 passing yards and 154.8 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 28.8 points against per game this season. Sawyer Robertson has completed 63.6% of his passes for 1,713 yards, 17 touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Josh Cameron has 27 receptions for 407 yards and three scores. Bryson Washington has led the Baylor rushing attack with 93 carries for 492 yards and five touchdowns this year.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview
The Kansas State Wildcats are 2-3 (1-1) this season after they defeated UCF by a score of 34-20 in their last game. Kansas State led 17-7 at halftime and 31-20 in the fourth, before putting the game away with a late field goal. The Wildcats out gained UCF by a total of 434-402, went 6-14 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 3-1 in the game. Avery Johnson went 18-25 for 168 yards and two touchdowns, while Dylan Edwards rushed 20 times for 166 yards and one touchdown. Jaron Tibbs led the KSU receivers with eight catches for 72 yards in the game. The Kansas State defense recorded three sacks and eight tackles for loss in the victory.
In their first four games, Kansas State lost to Iowa State, Army, and Arizona, but did beat North Dakota by a score of 38-35 in their second game. The Wildcats are averaging 26.2 points per game with 203.8 passing yards and 139.6 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 25.2 points against per game this season. Avery Johnson has completed 62.5% of his passes for 1,019 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception, while Jayce Brown has caught 25 passes for 284 yards and two scores. Dylan Edwards is the leading rusher for K-State with 24 carries for 179 yards and one touchdown this season.
Why Baylor will beat Kansas State
- Baylor has won seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.
- Kansas State has lost each of its last three road games.
- Kansas State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine road games.
- Baylor has covered the spread in each of its last four October games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has won the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
Why Kansas State will beat Baylor
- Kansas State has won each of its last six games in October.
- Baylor has lost nine of its last 12 home games against conference opponents.
- The road team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between Kansas State and Baylor.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Baylor’s last 10 games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Kansas State’s last five October games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Baylor ranks 3rd among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (349.4).
- Baylor ranks T8th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (131).
- Kansas State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
- Kansas State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
Baylor vs Kansas State Prediction
Kansas State was able to get their first win against a FBS opponent last week and they will look to make it two in a row here. The Wildcats have not been good offensively this season, but they will face a Baylor team that has allowed 27+ points in four of their last five games. The Bears did lose at home to Arizona State two games ago, but they have scored at least 42 points in three of their last four. I think we are going to see plenty of points in this game, so I will take the over.
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