TCU Horned Frogs (2-3) vs. Baylor Bears (4-1)
October 17, 2026 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Baylor Bears -218 / TCU Horned Frogs 180; Over/Under: 48.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Baylor vs TCU prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 17th at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 7 matchup.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Baylor Bears are 4-1 (2-0) this season after they defeated Arizona State by a score of 55-19 in their last game. Baylor led 24-13 at halftime and added 31 points in the second half for the blowout win. The Bears out gained ASU by a total of 564-409, went 9-15 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 3-0 in the game. DJ Lagway threw for 306 yards and four touchdowns, while Gavin Freeman caught seven passes for 115 yards. Caden Knighten rushed six times for 84 yards and one score in the game.
Prior to that win, Baylor defeated Colorado by a score of 23-13 and Louisiana Tech by a score of 36-19. The Bears have scored 34.8 points per game with 292.0 passing yards and 169.4 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 14.2 points against per game this season. DJ Lagway has thrown for 860 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions, while Gavin Freeman has 42 receptions for 479 yards and two scores this season.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
The TCU Horned Frogs are 2-3 (0-2) this year after they lost to BYU by a score of 17-10 in their last game. TCU was tied 7-7 at halftime, but didn’t score again until 32 seconds left in the fourth in the loss. The Horned Frogs out gained BYU by a total of 259-216, went 4-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Jaden Craig threw for 187 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Kari Ashley caught six passes for 108 yards and one score. Jeremy Payne rushed 14 times for 77 yards in the game.
Prior to that loss, TCU lost to UCF by a score of 21-13, but did defeat Arkansas State by a score of 31-7 before that. The Horned Frogs have scored 25.4 points per game with 280.0 passing yards and 125.4 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 13.4 points against per game this season. Jaden Craig has thrown for 1,400 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions this year.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- Baylor has won each of its last four games.
- TCU has lost seven of its last eight October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- TCU has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
- Baylor has won the first half in each of its last four games.
Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win
- TCU has won each of its last four games against teams from Texas.
- TCU has covered the spread in five of its last six games in Texas.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games in October.
- TCU has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games against Baylor.
- TCU has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against teams from Texas.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Baylor’s last seven October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of TCU’s last five October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Palmer Williams ranks 1st amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (52.8) this season.
TCU Horned Frogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Kari Ashley leads TCU for touchdowns (4) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Baylor ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.2).
- Baylor ranks 5th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (11.1).
- TCU ranks T1st among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (4.0).
- TCU ranks T3rd among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (70).
Baylor vs TCU Prediction
Baylor comes into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they have scored at least 36 points in three of those four wins. The Bears have also played very good defense this year, allowing 19 or fewer in all five games. TCU has not played well this year and they have scored 13 points or fewer in their three games against Power Four teams. I don’t trust this TCU offense, so give me Baylor to cover at home.
