Baylor vs Texas Prediction Football Picks 9-23-23
Baylor Bears (1-2) vs Texas Longhorns (3-0)
2023-09-23 19:30:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Baylor Bears +14.5 -- Over/Under: 51.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Texas Longhorns and Baylor Bears meet Saturday in week 4 college football action at McLane Stadium. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
The Texas Longhorns look for their second road win to remain undefeated on the season. Texas looks for its first 4-0 start since the 2012 season. Quinn Ewers is completing 60.7 percent of his passes for 740 yards, 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Xavier Worthy and Ja’Tavion Sanders have combined for 379 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Adonai Mitchell has 9 receptions. The Texas Longhorns ground game is averaging 149.3 yards per contest, and Jonathon Brooks leads the way with 273 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Texas is allowing 14.7 points and 276.3 yards per game. David Gbenda leads the Texas Longhorns with 18 tackles, Ethan Burke has 2 sacks and Jerrin Thompson has 2 interceptions.
Texas Longhorns Team Facts
- Texas has won each of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The team ranked 3rd in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
- Texas has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
- Texas has won the first half in seven of its last nine games against conference opponents.
- Four of Texas’ last five games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Baylor Bears look for back-to-back wins to get to a .500 record for the first time. Baylor has lost each of its last 6 games against ranked teams. Sawyer Robertson is completing 45.2 percent of his passes for 444 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Ketron Jackson Jr. and Hal Presley have combined for 323 receiving yards on 18 catches, while Drake Dabney has 8 receptions. The Baylor Bears ground game is averaging 166.3 yards per contest, and Dominic Richardson leads the way with 156 yards on 30 carries. Defensively, Baylor is allowing 23 points and 333.7 yards per game. Matt Jones leads the Baylor Bears with 17 tackles, Byron Vaughns has 2 sacks and Kyler Jordan has 1 interception.
Baylor Bears Team Facts
- Baylor has won three of its last four games as an underdog against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games.
- Baylor has won the first half in nine of its last 12 games against conference opponents.
- Each of Baylor’s last eight games as an underdog against top-10 AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Baylor ranked 12th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (9.4).
- Baylor ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage last season (.692).
- Texas ranked T5th among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage last season (.769).
- Texas was one of only eight FBS teams to lose 3+ games when leading after Q3 last season.
Randy’s Pick
This is a massive line, and I’d love to see if we can get under the hook. Still, it’s Texas or pass for me. The Texas Longhorns have shown a balanced attack through 3 games, and their defense has passed the test up to this point. The Baylor Bears lost to Texas State and didn’t exactly blow the doors off LIU the way they should. Baylor still has issues finishing drives offensively, and its defense is 107th against the run. Not ideal going up this Texas offensive line that can open things up. Again big line, but give me the Longhorns in a comfortable road victory.