Boise State vs Appalachian State Prediction Football Picks Today 9/27/25

In this article we will formulate a Boise State vs Appalachian State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 27th at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 5 matchup. 

Boise State Broncos Betting Preview

The Boise State Broncos are 2-1 (1-0) this year after they defeated Air Force by a score of 49-37 last week. Boise State led 21-14 at halftime, but that lead was cut to 42-37 in the fourth quarter, before they put the game away with about two minutes left. The Broncos out gained Air Force by a total of 592-514, went 7-10 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Maddux Madsen went 13-23 for 276 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Dylan Riley rushed 19 times for 171 yards and four scores. Latrell Caples led the receivers with five catches for 87 yards in the win. The Boise defense recorded one sack and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Boise State opened the season with a 34-7 loss to South Florida, but did beat Eastern Washington by a score of 51-14 in their second game. The Broncos are averaging 35.7 points per game with 291.7 passing yards and 244.0 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 28.3 points against per game this season. Maddux Madsen has completed 56.8% of his passes for 808 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, while Chris Marshall has caught seven passes for 164 yards and one score. Dylan Riley has led the rushing attack for Boise State with 314 yards and five touchdowns on 32 carries this year. 

Appalachian State Mountaineers Betting Preview

The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 2-1 (0-1) this season after they lost to Southern Miss by a score of 38-22 in their last game. Appalachian State trailed 17-7 at halftime and never got within single digits in the second half in the loss. The Mountaineers out gained Southern Miss by a total of 470-389, went 6-18 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 3-1 in the game. AJ Swann went 15-23 for 217 yards and three touchdowns, while Rashod Dubinion rushed 24 times for 95 yards and one score. Jaden Barnes led the receivers with 10 catches for 132 yards and one touchdown in the win. The App State defense recorded one sack and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Appalachian State started the season with a 34-11 win over Charlotte and a 20-13 win over Lindenwood in their first two games. The Mountaineers are averaging 25.3 points per game with 357.7 passing yards and 162.0 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 20.7 points against per game this season. AJ Swann has completed 63.1% of his passes for 879 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Jaden Barnes has caught 24 passes for 337 yards and three scores. Rashod Dubinion has led the running game with 400 yards and two touchdowns on 71 carries this season. 

Why Appalachian State will beat Boise State

• Appalachian State has won five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
• Appalachian State has covered the spread in seven of its last nine September games as an underdog.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Boise State’s last eight games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Appalachian State’s last four games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Boise State ranks 130th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (18.0).
• Boise State ranks 7th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+11.3).
• Appalachian State ranks 3rd among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (357.7).
• Appalachian State ranks 8th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (61.7).

Boise State vs Appalachian State Prediction 

Boise State comes into this game after scoring 100 points in their last two games, but they have struggled on defense against FBS opponents this year, as they have allowed 37 and 34 points against Air Force and USF. Appalachian State is coming off of a disappointing performance against Southern Miss and this is a big step up in competition in comparison to their first three games. I think we are going to see plenty of points in this matchup, but I like Swann under center for the Mountaineers (if he is healthy) and I think they can keep it close to 10 points. Take App State to cover here. 

David Racey is 18-9 (67%) in his last 27 College Football plays this season and is #1 on the leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!