Liberty Flames (1-1) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (1-1)
September 13, 2025 5:00 pm EDT
The Line: Bowling Green Falcons +6.5; Over/Under:
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The Liberty Flames and the Bowling Green Falcons meet Saturday in college football action from Doyt Perry Stadium. Here’s a Bowling Green vs Liberty prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bowling Green vs Liberty pick.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
The Flames started out pretty slowly in their opening game versus Maine back on August 30. Liberty traded second-quarter touchdowns for a 7-7 result after the third. Following 21 unanswered points in the final quarter however, the Flames had a sizable win 28-7 by game’s end. Quarterback Ethan Vasko threw for all three touchdowns amid a 19-of-33 line for 197 yards. Vasko also led the rush with 13 carries for 63 yards and another score. Caden Williams added nine totes for 52 yards, while Reese Smith had six receptions for 46 yards and one of the touchdowns. Both Donte Lee and Evan Dickens had scores as well.
Last Saturday versus Jacksonville State, the Flames trailed by a touchdown heading into the second half. Liberty was outscored 17-14 from there however, resulting in a 34-24 loss in the end. Vasko was 19-of-29 for 335 yards, two scores and an interception. Evan Dickens posted 13 carries for 114 yards and a TD to lead the rushers, and Lee had two catches for 74 yards and a score to top the receivers. Julian Gray caught two balls and had a TD as well, staying close behind with 73 yards of his own.
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview
Over on the Bowling Green side, they kicked off their year versus the Lafayette Leopards. The Falcons were up 17-0 by the end of the first half in that one, scoring points in all four quarters along the way to a 26-7 victory. Quarterback Drew Pyne threw for 109 yards on a 12-of-18 line. Tops in rushing was Kaderris Roberts with 12 carries for 66 yards. Mar’Kel Porter rushed twice for 10 yards and a touchdown, while RJ Garcia led the receivers with his two catches for 32 yards in the victory.
In their game two matchup versus Cincinnati last Saturday, Bowling Green scored in three of four quarters—but gave up points in all four quarters—during a 34-20 loss that featured a 21-3 deficit at the half. Pyne posted a 29-of-36 line for 274 yards and a touchdown, and Cameron Pettaway added 13 totes for 72 yards. Porter had a TD rushing but only six carries for nine yards. Jyrin Johnson was the leading receiver with seven grabs for 80 yards and a touchdown.
Liberty Flames @ Bowling Green Falcons Betting Trends: Week 3
Bowling Green Falcons Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 3, RJ Garcia II ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
Liberty Flames Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 3, Reese Smith ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Bowling Green ranks 15th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (34:46).
- Bowling Green ranks T120th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (8.5).
- Liberty ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (17.5).
- Liberty ranks 134th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (261.0).
Bowling Green vs Liberty Prediction
I’m probably going to take a stab on Liberty here. The Flames are coming off a rough loss, but if not for a couple of mistakes they could have turned that one into a W relatively easily. Liberty posted 534 yards (335 passing) on offense with 20 first downs, 8.1 yards per play and 7-of-14 on third-down tries. The two turnovers didn’t help, though. Defensively the Flames were great against the pass (52 yards) but horrid against the rush (338 yards) while giving up an 8-of-14 rate on third-down conversions. The rush defense needs a major shot in the arm before this weekend’s matchup, or else the Flames are cooked.
As for Bowling Green, they were great on third downs (2-of-7) in their loss to Cincinnati but the game wasn’t really that close—especially considering the Falcons gave up 333 pass yards and 8.3 yards per play. The offense wasn’t terrible outside of the 6-of-16 rate on third-down tries, but they weren’t spectacular on the ground. Bowling Green is talented enough to control the game versus Liberty, but I’d like to see a better ground attack. This one could play out in a lot of different ways.
