Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois Prediction 10-12-24 College Football Picks

The Northern Illinois Huskies and the Bowling Green Falcons meet Saturday in college football action from Doyt Perry Stadium. Here’s a Bowling Green vs NIU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bowling Green vs NIU pick.

Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Preview

The Huskies kicked off the year with a pair of impressive victories. Those came 54-15 over Western Illinois and 16-14 against Notre Dame. After that, Northern Illinois hit the loss column, however, facing Buffalo 23-20 (OT) and North Carolina State 24-17.

In their matchup with UMass, the Huskies scored 21 points in the final quarter along the way to a 34-20 win. Ethan Hampton (rush TD) put up just 34 passing yards, one TD, and a pick. Gavin Williams (125 yards; TD) and Jaylen Poe (98 yards; two TDs) did most of the work on the ground.

Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview

Over on the Falcons’ side, they got off to a nice start this year with a big win 41-17 over Fordham. Bowling Green would then record a series of losses, dropping to Penn State 34-27, Texas A&M 26-20, and Old Dominion 30-27.

Matched up against Akron last Saturday, the Falcons were up 17-10 going into the final quarter and held on for the win 27-20. Connor Bazelak threw for 268 yards, but Jaison Patterson (52 yards; two TDs) and Harold Fannin (37 yards; TD) did most of the work on the ground.

Why the Bowling Green Falcons will win

• Bowling Green has won six of its last seven games against conference opponents.
• Northern Illinois has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
• The favorite has covered the spread in four of the last five games between Northern Illinois and Bowling Green.
• Bowling Green has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
• Bowling Green has won the first half in each of its last seven games against conference opponents.

Why the Northern Illinois Huskies will win

• Northern Illinois has won seven of its last eight October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Bowling Green has lost 10 of its last 13 home games in October.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Bowling Green’s last four games.
• Bowling Green has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Northern Illinois has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Bowling Green’s last five October games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams has gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Northern Illinois’ last four games as an underdog has gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bowling Green ranks 115th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (191.0).
• Bowling Green ranks T111th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (7.6).
• Northern Illinois ranks T9th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (73).
• Northern Illinois ranks T10th among FBS teams for yards allowed per game this season (263.4).

Bowling Green vs NIU Prediction

I’ll probably stay with NIU. The Huskies had a weird win over UMass last weekend. Northern Illinois finished with 402 total yards—367 of which came on the ground. The good news is that NIU logged 6.3 yards per play, 23 first downs, and 9-of-11 on third-down tries. The defense did the rest of the work, and the Huskies have now given up fewer than 25 points in all five games so far.

As for Bowling Green, on Saturday they finished with 386 total yards (268 passing) and 20 first downs against Akron. Defensively the Falcons gave up just 15 first downs and 3-of-11 on third-down tries. It’ll be tough to move the ball on Northern Illinois if the Huskies are on point though, so I don’t think Bowling Green will cover.