Bowling Green vs Toledo Prediction Football Picks Today 10/11/25

In this article we will formulate a Bowling Green vs Toledo prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 11th at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 7 matchup. 

Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview

The Bowling Green Falcons are 2-3 (0-1) this year after they lost to Ohio by a score of 35-20 in their last game. Bowling Green trailed 21-13 at halftime, but they did cut the deficit to 28-20 in the fourth quarter, before Ohio put the game away. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 439-350, went 5-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 4-3 in the game. Drew Pyne went 19-29 for 170 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, while Chris McMillian rushed 11 times for 89 yards and one score. Finn Hogan led the receivers with three catches for 51 yards in the loss. The BG defense recorded two sacks and two tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that defeat, Bowling Green lost to Louisville, defeated Liberty, lost to Cincinnati, and defeated Lafayette. The Falcons are averaging 21.2 points per game with 166.0 passing yards and 156.6 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 25.8 points against per game this season. Drew Pyne has completed 64.4% of his passes for 830 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions, while RJ Garcia II has caught 17 passes for 168 yards. Chris McMillian has led the ground game with 226 yards and two scores on 46 carries this year. 

Toledo Rockets Betting Preview

The Toledo Rockets are 3-2 (1-1) this season after they defeated Akron by a score of 45-3 in their last game. Toledo led 35-3 at halftime and their defense pitched a shutout in the second half for the easy win. The Rockets out gained Akron by a total of 538-134, went 3-8 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Tucker Gleason went 16-19 for 237 yards and three touchdowns, while Chip Trayanum rushed 11 times for 75 yards and one score. Junior Vandeross III led the receivers with nine receptions for 122 yards and two touchdowns in the win. The Toledo defense recorded two sacks and nine tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that win, Toledo lost to Western Michigan, beat Morgan State and Western Kentucky, and lost to Kentucky. The Rockets are averaging 35.8 points per game with 230.0 passing yards and 212.4 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 12.4 points against per game this season. Tucker Gleason has completed 62.7% of his passes for 925 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Junior Vandeross III has 31 receptions for 380 yards and six scores. Chip Trayanum has led the rushing attack with 476 yards and six touchdowns on 76 carries this season. 

Why the Bowling Green Falcons will win

• Toledo has lost four of its last five games as a road favorite.
• Bowling Green has won four of its last five October games as an underdog.
• Toledo has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as a road favorite.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of Toledo’s last four games.
• Bowling Green has won the first quarter in five of its last six home games against conference opponents.
• Bowling Green has won the first half in 13 of its last 15 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Toledo’s last five games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between Toledo and Bowling Green have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bowling Green has lost the third quarter in each of its last six games – longest active streak in the FBS.
• Bowling Green ranks 129th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-4.8).
• Toledo has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Toledo has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 20+ points of any FBS team this season (3).

Bowling Green vs Toledo Prediction 

Toledo comes into this matchup after winning three of their last four games and they have scored at least 45 points in all three of those wins. The Rockets have allowed a total of 17 points in their last three games, so the defense is playing at a high level. Bowling Green has lost three of their last four and they have allowed 75 points in their last two games. I do think Toledo is the better team, but they have not played well on the road and I think this is too many points. Take Bowling Green here. 

David Racey is 58-44 (57%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!