Buffalo vs Toledo Prediction 10-12-24 College Football Picks

The Toledo Rockets and the Buffalo Bulls meet Saturday in college football action from UB Stadium. Here’s a Buffalo vs Toledo prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Buffalo vs Toledo pick.

Toledo Rockets Betting Preview

Toledo opened up their 2024 season with a trio of solid wins. The Rockets dispatched Duquesne 49-10, then beat UMass 38-23. Game three was a 41-17 win over Mississippi State. Toledo’s first loss came September 21 versus Western Kentucky 26-21.

Last weekend versus Miami-OH, Toledo took a 20-6 edge into the second half and held on for the win 30-20. Tucker Gleason finished with 318 pass yards, two TDs, and two picks. Jerjuan Newton caught eight balls for 127 yards and a  TD.

Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview

Over on the Buffalo side, they won three of their first four games. The lone blemish was a 38-0 blowout versus Missouri. Otherwise, the Bulls beat Lafayette 30-13, UMass 34-3 and Northern Illinois 23-20 (OT) to kick things off at 3-1.

Back on September 28 versus UConn, Buffalo took a blowout defeat. The Bulls gave up double-digit points in each quarter during a 47-3 result. Quarterback CJ Ogbonna threw for just 82 yards and led the rush as well with 14 carries for 38 yards.

Why the Buffalo Bulls will win

• The home team has won four of Buffalo’s last five games.
• Buffalo has covered the spread in seven of its last eight October games as a home underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Toledo has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five October road games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Toledo Rockets will win

• Toledo has won each of its last six games in October.
• Buffalo has lost four of its last five games against conference opponents.
• Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The favorite has covered the spread in eight of Buffalo’s last 10 games.
• Buffalo has lost the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Buffalo’s last six home games against non-AP-ranked teams has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Toledo’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Buffalo ranks T133rd among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (2.4).
• Buffalo ranks 131st among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (6.4).
• Toledo ranks T9th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (2.0).
• Toledo ranks 11th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (87.8).

Buffalo vs Toledo Prediction

I’ll just stay with Toledo. The Rockets had a bit of trouble in spots versus a struggling Miami-OH team last weekend but everything worked out. Toledo finished with 396 total yards (318 passing) and 25 first downs but went just 5-of-14 on third-down tries and had six penalties. There’s plenty to fix in practice this week.

As for Buffalo, they’ve had some extra time to recover from that blowout loss versus UConn. The Bulls posted just 198 total yards (123 passing) in that one with 12 first downs and 1-of-14 on third-down tries. The defense gave up a whopping 537 yards (280 passing) on the other side. This should be a significantly easier matchup, but I don’t think the Bulls will quite cover.