Baylor Bears (6-3) vs. BYU Cougars (7-2)
November 14, 2026 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: BYU Cougars -285 / Baylor Bears 230; Over/Under: 49.5
(Get latest betting odds)
BYU vs Baylor Prediction
Baylor comes into this matchup on a two game winning streak and they have scored 41+ points in three of their last five. The Bears are 1-1 in their last two road games and will be playing at a very tough place to play here. BYU is coming off of a tough loss to Utah last week and they have dropped two of their last three. The Cougars have not been impressive since their win over Notre Dame and can’t afford another loss. I don’t trust how BYU is playing right now, but I still feel like they are much better than Baylor. Take the Cougars here.
BYU Cougars Betting Preview
The BYU Cougars are 7-2 (4-2) this season after they lost to Utah by a score of 28-20 in their last game. BYU led 20-14 at halftime, but they failed to score in the second half in the rivalry game loss. The Cougars out gained Utah by a total of 391-330, went 8-15 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 4-2 in the game. Bear Bachmeier threw for 272 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions, while also rushing eight times for 59 yards. Legend Glasker caught seven passes for 118 yards and one score, while Sione Moa rushed 10 times for 37 yards in the game.
Prior to that loss, BYU defeated Arizona State by a score of 27-20, but lost to UCF by a score of 39-31 before that. The Cougars have scored 31.0 points per game with 228.0 passing yards and 169.1 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.8 points against per game this season. Bear Bachmeier has thrown for 2,022 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing 88 times for 395 yards and seven scores. LJ Martin is the leading running back for BYU and he just returned from injury, while Legend Glasker has 39 receptions for 703 yards and five touchdowns this season.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Baylor Bears are 6-3 (4-2) this year after they defeated Iowa State by a score of 42-31 in their last game. Baylor led 21-17 at halftime and they added 21 points in the second half for the win and cover. The Bears were out gained by a total of 472-423, went 4-11 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. DJ Lagway threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing 13 times for 119 yards and one score. Taz Williams Jr caught one pass for 62 yards and one touchdown, while Ryelan Morris rushed nine times for 50 yards and two scores in the win.
Prior to that game, Baylor defeated UCF by a score of 41-9, but lost to Kansas by a score of 25-24 before that. The Bears have scored 31.9 points per game with 277.8 passing yards and 155.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 17.0 points against per game this season. DJ Lagway has thrown for 1,900 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions, while Gavin Freeman has caught 69 passes for 852 yards and three scores. Caden Knighten has rushed 80 times for 361 yards and three touchdowns this year.
Why the BYU Cougars will win
- BYU has won each of its last 12 games at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
- Baylor has lost 12 of its last 13 games against AP-ranked teams.
- BYU has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four November games as a road underdog.
- BYU has won the first quarter in four of its last five games.
- Baylor has lost the first half in each of its last seven games against AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Baylor’s last eight games as an underdog against top-15 AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of BYU’s last eight November home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
BYU Cougars Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Bear Bachmeier ranks 6th amongst qualified players for sack percentage (2.0%) this season.
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
- Gavin Freeman has recorded 5+ receptions in 14 consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 11.
Matchup/League Facts
- BYU ranks 135th among FBS teams for sacks this season (5.0).
- BYU ranks 11th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (50.9).
- Baylor ranks 7th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (3.3).
- Baylor ranks 7th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+6.7).
Positive Trends
After reviewing the trends, I am sticking with BYU as my play. BYU is 12-0 in their last 12 home games and they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight home games. Baylor has struggled against ranked teams and while they are a solid team, I don’t consider them a huge threat here. Take BYU at home.
