California vs SMU Prediction Football Picks Today 10/24/26

In this article, we will formulate a California vs SMU Prediction for this College Football Week 8 matchup on Saturday, October 24^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

SMU Mustangs Preview

SMU has a 5-1 record and a 3-1 record in the ACC. They are coming off a 23-13 home win against Virginia and will face Syracuse and Virginia Tech next.

Offensively, SMU averages 32.7 points per game, ranking 47th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 21.3 points per game, which is 47th. SMU averages 466.7 total yards per game (325.2 passing and 141.5 rushing), while allowing 303 total yards per game (138.2 rushing and 164.8 passing).

Kevin Jennings leads SMU with 1,834 passing yards with 72.9% completed passes and 16 touchdowns. Kendrick Raphael leads the team in rushing yards with 542, while Yamir Knight has a team-high 418 receiving yards and 35 receptions. Defensively, Alex Kilgore has a team-high 35 total tackles (15 of them solo), while Marques White leads the team with 4.5 sacks.

California Golden Bears Preview

California has a 3-4 record and a 2-2 record in the ACC. They are coming off a 7-41 home loss against Wake Forest and will face NC State and Virginia next.

Offensively, California averages 23.9 points per game, ranking 96th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 27.7 points per game, which is 105th. California averages 378.4 total yards per game (288.1 passing and 90.3 rushing), while allowing 386.1 total yards per game (179.9 rushing and 206.3 passing).

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele leads California with 1,290 passing yards with 67.0% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. Adam Mohammed leads the team in rushing yards with 336, while Chase Hendricks has a team-high 415 receiving yards and 47 receptions. Defensively, Isaiah Crosby has a team-high 40 total tackles (27 of them solo), while AJ Tuitele leads the team with 3 sacks.

California Golden Bears @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: Week 8

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last 16 games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
• California has lost each of its last 10 October games against AP-ranked teams.
• California has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games in October.
• SMU has covered the spread in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last 22 games as a favorite in Texas.
• SMU has won the first quarter in seven of its last eight October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the California Golden Bears will win

• SMU has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 games as an AP-ranked team.
• California has covered the spread in three of its last four games in Texas.
• California has won the first half in seven of its last nine games against teams from Texas.
• California has won the first quarter in six of its last eight games against teams from Texas.

Total Points Facts

• Each of SMU’s last seven games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of California’s last four games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Kevin Jennings ranks T10th amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (16) this season.

California Golden Bears Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Kingston Lopa ranks T1st amongst FBS players for interceptions (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10 points or less of any FBS team this season (3).
• SMU ranks T3rd among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (2.2).
• California ranks 137th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (90.3).
• California ranks 137th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (-8.1).

California vs SMU Prediction

In this California vs SMU prediction, SMU is coming as -20.5 home favorites. SMU has been the better team this season, having lost only once but are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. California is 1-3 in its last 4 games and 1-4 ATS, having weaker numbers both offensively and defensively, but they don’t deserve to be huge +20.5 dogs. I will not pick a side and instead look at the total, where both teams are very efficient defensively, allowing 49 ppg combined this season, a number way below today’s total of 54.5. They are also an almost perfect 8-1 to the under in their last 9 games combined, so take the under in this one.