Charlotte vs Duke 9/3/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The Duke Blue Devils face Charlotte 49ers in week 1 college football action on Friday from Jerry Richardson Stadium.

The Duke Blue Devils enter the 2020 season trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2-9 season including a 1-9 mark in ACC conference play. The first order of business for Duke will be fixing their turnover problem, after losing a nation-high 39 turnovers in 11 games last season. Chase Brice is now at Appalachian State, leaving quarterback duties to Gunnar Holmberg who has played just seven games in the last three seasons. The other positive for Duke is that a large chunk of the supporting cast around Holmberg are also back in receivers Jake Bobo, Jalon Calhoun and Eli Pancol while Mataeo Durant is back at running back to head man rushing duties after recording 817 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns in a backup role last season. On defense, the Blue Devils lost their two top pass rushers in Chris Rumph II and Victor Dimukeje who went pro, so the pass rush duties are left up to Ben Frye and new starting tackle DeWayne Carter can help pose a formidable force up front. Shaka Heyward and Rocky Shelton II are back to start at linebacker once again as the anchors of the Duke defense while an injury-riddled secondary from 202 will hope to have clean bills of health from safety Lummie Young IV and Josh Blackwell. Leonard Johnson thankfully comes back with plenty of game-level experience and Nate Thompson and Jalen Alexander will each be expected to shoulder bigger roles in this year’s defensive unit. As a team, Duke averaged 24.8 PPG while allowing 38.1 PPG last season.

The Charlotte 49ers come into the 2021 season looking to shake off a disappointing 2-4 season including a 2-2 mark in C-USA conference play. It’s fair to cut Charlotte a fair bit of slack as the 49ers were ravaged by COVID in 2020, but the good news is that ten starters are expected to return on the offensive side of the ball, led by QB Chris Reynolds, who had an 8:2 TD:INT ratio in the six games. Reynolds will be expected to start early on, but Texas A&M transfer James Fosterwill be waiting in the wings in the event that Reynolds doesn’t cut the mustard early on. Whoever gets the nod under center gets a fair bit of help, with the top four pass-catchers all returning, including tight end Taylor Thompson. The issue for Charlotte is that Tre Harbison and Aaron McAllister are gone from the Charlotte backfield, but Shadrick Byrd transfers in from Iowa and Calvin Camp has home run hitter potential as a major speed threat. Defensively, there’s a fair bit of work to do, including finding a replacement for arguably the 49ers’ best defender from last season in Timmy Horne while Tyriq Harris is done with the program as well. The 49ers hit the transfer portal hard though to find replacements, recruiting Notre Dame’s Kofi Wardlow and Iowa State’s Joshua Bailey to help alongside Markees Watts and Mikel Horton who will be projects for this 49er defense this season. Antone Williams and Lance McMillan will be the guys to watch in Charlotte’s secondary while Tyler Murray is back at linebacker after leading Charlotte with 49 tackles last season. Luke Martin is also back after excelling in run-stopping last year while Jaylon Sharpe and former Troy Trojan Justin Whisenhunt could be game-changers early on for the Charlotte D. As a team, Charlotte averaged 27 PPG while allowing 32.5 PPG last season.

Duke is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and 11-5 in their last 16 September games while the over is 11-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite. The over is 4-1 in Charlotte’s last 5 games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 home games.

My initial lean was to Duke as I guess I went with the bigger team beating up the smaller in-state rival theory, but I did a second and third glance at Duke and quite frankly, I’m not liking what I’m seeing. I think David Cutcliffe has some work to do and game one won’t be easy as the 49ers want revenge. I think this is going to be a battle though and I don’t see how we get to near 60 points here. Give me the under.