Arizona State Sun Devils (8-4) vs. Duke Blue Devils (8-5)
December 31, 2025 2:00 pm EDT
The Line: Duke Blue Devils -3; Over/Under: 49.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Arizona State Sun Devils and the Duke Blue Devils meet Wednesday in Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl college football action from the Sun Bowl in El Paso. Here’s a Duke vs Arizona State Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Duke vs Arizona State pick.
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview
The Sun Devils managed a 5-2 record over their first seven games this year. The wins in that time were over Northern Arizona, Texas State, Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech. The final five outings were a 3-2 run with losses to Houston and Arizona sandwiched around wins over Iowa State, West Virginia and Colorado. Arizona State would finish off the regular-season campaign with an 8-4 overall record.
In their last outing back on November 28 versus Arizona, the Sun Devils went into the locker room with a 7-3 edge. Arizona State was outscored 20-0 the rest of the way however, and lost the game 23-7 in the end. QB Jeff Sims put up an 11-of-25 line for 114 yards and three picks while rushing in a TD. Raleek Brown had 63 yards to top the runners and Malik McClain added four catches for 57 yards.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
Over on the Duke side, they managed to go 4-2 over their first six games with wins over Elon, NC State, Syracuse and Cal in that time. The Blue Devils would lose to Georgia Tech, UConn and Virginia over the next four games, but closed the season with wins over North Carolina, Wake Forest and Virginia. Over a 13-game stretch that would give Duke an 8-5 overall record this year.
Matched up against Virginia in the ACC Championship, Duke scored points in every quarter and eventually emerged victorious 27-20 after overtime in a tense game. QB Darian Mensah had a 19-of-25 line for 196 yards, two scores and an interception. Nate Sheppard rushed 21 times for 97 yards and a TD and Cooper Barkate had 91 yards off five catches.
Why the Duke Blue Devils will win
- Duke has won each of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams at neutral venues.
- Arizona State has lost six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
- Duke has covered the spread in seven of its last eight Bowl games.
Why the Arizona State Sun Devils will win
- Arizona State has won three of its last four games as an underdog in Texas.
- Duke has lost four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- Duke has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- Arizona State has covered the spread in each of its last four games at neutral venues.
- Duke has lost the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Duke’s last six games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of Arizona State’s last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Duke Blue Devils Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the bowl games, Darian Mensah is one of only two players in the league to record two or more passing touchdowns in nine consecutive appearances this season.
Arizona State Sun Devils Player Prop Facts
- Sam Leavitt has thrown zero interceptions in five consecutive games (including postseason) – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into the bowl games.
Matchup/League Facts
- Duke ranks T2nd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (73.7).
- Duke ranks 130th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (269.2).
- Arizona State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (3).
- Arizona State ranks 131st among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (2.7).
Duke vs Arizona State Prediction
I’ll stay with Duke. The Blue Devils dispatched a very good Virginia team in the ACC Championship back on December 6, putting up 333 yards, 19 first downs and 4.8 yards per play. Duke wasn’t great on third downs (6-of-16) and had eight team penalties, though. On defense, the Devils gave up 344 yards with 25 first downs, 7-of-15 on third downs and two picks. With a bit of a buoy from overtime, Duke has 27 or more points in three straight games now, winning all three.
As for Arizona State, they had a rough second half in the Arizona game and ended up with just 12 first downs, 3-of-11 on third-down tries and a whopping five turnovers in the defeat. Prior to that however, the Sun Devils had 24 or more points in three straight games—all wins. Still, I don’t think they’ve got the firepower to keep up with Duke.
