NC State Wolfpack (3-0) vs. Duke Blue Devils (1-2)
September 20, 2025 4:00 pm EDT
The Line: Duke Blue Devils -2.5 / NC State Wolfpack 2.5; Over/Under: 57.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Duke vs NC State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 20th at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 4 matchup.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
The Duke Blue Devils are 1-2 (0-0) this season after they lost to Tulane by a score of 34-27 last time out. Duke trailed 14-0 after the first quarter and 24-9 at halftime, but they did play better and nearly completed the comeback in the second half. The Blue Devils out gained Tulane by a total of 452-426, went 6-14 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Darian Mensah went 30-51 for 313 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Nate Sheppard carried the ball five times for 75 yards. Que’Sean Brown led the Duke receivers with six catches for 81 yards in the game. The Duke defense recorded one sack and seven tackles for loss in the defeat.
Duke started the season with a 45-17 win over Elon in week one, but they lost their game in week two by a score of 45-19 against Illinois. The Blue Devils are averaging 30.3 points per game with 352.7 passing yards and 126.7 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 32.0 points against per game this season. Darian Mensah has completed 67.2% of his passes for 1,036 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Cooper Barkate has caught 14 passes for 272 yards. Nate Sheppard has led the Duke rushing attack with 127 yards on 15 carries this season.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview
The NC State Wolfpack are 3-0 (1-0) this year after they defeated Wake Forest by a score of 34-24 last week. NC State was tied at 14 after the first quarter and they trailed 24-17 at halftime, but they scored 17 straight in the second half for the win. The Wolfpack out gained Wake by a total of 406-311, went 7-18 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 2-0 in the game. CJ Bailey went 23-32 for 201 yards and three touchdowns, while Hollywood Smothers rushed 24 times for 164 yards. Noah Rogers led the NC State receivers with four catches for 52 yards in the game. The NC State defense recorded one sack and three tackles for loss in the victory.
NC State defeated East Carolina in week one by a score of 24-17 and Virginia in week two by a score of 35-31. The Wolfpack are averaging 31.0 points per game with 239.7 passing yards and 175.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 24.0 points against per game this season. CJ Bailey has completed 70.8% of his passes for 719 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, while Wesley Grimes has caught nine passes for 173 yards and one score. Hollywood Smothers is the leading rusher with 380 yards and three touchdowns on 63 carries this year.
Why Duke will beat NC State
- Duke has won each of its last 13 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium.
- Duke has covered the spread in 11 of its last 12 home games against conference opponents.
- NC State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight road games in September.
- NC State has lost the first half in eight of its last 10 games against conference opponents.
- Duke has won the first quarter in each of its last three home games against conference opponents.
Why NC State will beat Duke
- NC State has won four of its last five games as an underdog against teams from North Carolina.
- Duke has lost three of its last four games.
- Duke has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
- NC State has covered the spread in each of its last four road games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of NC State’s last six road games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Duke’s last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Duke ranks 9th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (352.7).
- Duke ranks T123rd among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (2.0).
- NC State ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
- NC State ranks 131st among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (297.3).
David Racey is 16-9 (64%) in his last 25 College Football plays this season. Click here for his premium plays for this week!
Duke vs NC State Prediction
Duke comes into this matchup as a slight home favorite, but they are looking for their first FBS win of the season. The Blue Devils have had plenty of issues on defense recently, as they have allowed 34 and 45 points in their last two games. On the other side, NC State has scored 34 and 35 points in their last two games, so I am definitely worried about the Duke defense in this contest. I think we will see plenty of scoring from both sides, so take the over here.
