North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1) vs. Duke Blue Devils (4-0)
September 28, 2024 4:00 pm EDT
The Line: Duke Blue Devils -2.5 / North Carolina Tar Heels +2.5; Over/Under: +55.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Duke Blue Devils will meet Saturday in college football action from Wallace Wade Stadium. Here’s a Duke vs North Carolina prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Duke vs North Carolina pick.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
The Tar Heels opened up their 2024 campaign with a matchup versus Minnesota. North Carolina eked out a 19-17 win in that one, and followed it up with a 38-20 win over Charlotte the next week. UNC kept it rolling with a 45-10 victory versus NC Central in game three.
Matched up against James Madison, the Tar Heels gave up a whopping 53 points in the first half on the way to a 70-50 loss. QB Jacolby Criswell finished with 475 yards, three scores and two picks. Omarion Hampton led the rush with 139 yards and three scores.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
Over on the Blue Devils’ side, they also won their first three games of the season. Duke took care of Elon 26-3 in the opener, but game two was a close OT win over Northwestern 26-20. Duke had another close call 26-21 over UConn in game three.
Last weekend on the road versus Middle Tennessee, Duke was up 35-10 by halftime and cruised to the win 45-17. Maalik Murphy threw for 216 yards, three TDs and an interception. Topping the rush was Star Thomas with 111 yards and two TDs off 17 totes.
Why the Duke Blue Devils will win
- Duke has won each of its last eight September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- North Carolina has lost each of its last three road games against conference opponents.
- Duke has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against conference opponents at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium.
- North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- North Carolina has won three of its last four September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of Duke’s last four games.
- Duke has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of North Carolina’s last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of Duke’s last six games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Duke vs North Carolina Prediction
I’ll stick with Duke here. The Blue Devils had a big first half against Middle Tennessee in their last game, ultimately compiling 340 yards (216 passing) and 6.1 yards per play. Duke came up with four takeaways on defense and gave up just 127 passing yards in the win.
As for North Carolina, some of their numbers from last weekend’s loss look great: 616 total yards (475 passing), 7.8 yards per play and 30 first downs. That said, the Tar Heels also posted nine penalties, five turnovers and a rough 2-of-9 rate on third-down tries. (Not to mention the 611 total yards surrendered on defense.) This weekend will be another tricky matchup.
