Duke vs Virginia Prediction Football Picks Today 12/6/25

In this article, we will formulate a Duke vs Virginia Prediction for this College Football ACC Championship game on Saturday, December 6^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Virginia Cavaliers Preview

Virginia has a 10-2 record this season and finished 2nd in the ACC. They are coming off a 27-7 home win against Virginia Tech. Offensively, Virginia averages 33.2 points per game, ranking 27th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 20 points per game, which is 24th. Virginia averages 433.2 total yards per game (244.5 passing and 188.7 rushing), while allowing 311.7 total yards per game (108.3 rushing and 203.4 passing).

Chandler Morris leads Virginia with 2,586 passing yards with 65.9% completed passes and 14 touchdowns. Harrison Waylee leads the team in rushing yards with 742, while Trell Harris has a team-high 56 receptions for 809 receiving yards. Defensively, Devin Neal has a team-high 70 total tackles (31 of them solo), while Mitchell Melton leads the team in sacks, with 5, and Kam Robinson and Ja’son Prevard lead the team with 2 interceptions each.

Duke Blue Devils Preview

Duke has a 7-5 record this season and finished 6th in the ACC. They are coming off a 49-32 home win against Wake Forest. Offensively, Duke averages 34.6 points per game, ranking 19th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 29.4 points per game, which is 97th. Duke averages 421.4 total yards per game (289.3 passing and 132.1 rushing), while allowing 414.7 total yards per game (141 rushing and 273.7 passing).

Darian Mensah leads Duke with 3,452 passing yards with 67.5% completed passes and 28 touchdowns. Nate Sheppard leads the team in rushing yards with 786, while Cooper Barkate has a team-high 63 receptions for 978 receiving yards. Defensively, Caleb Weaver has a team-high 79 total tackles (35 of them solo), while Vincent Anthony Jr. leads the team in sacks, with 6.5, and Andrew Pellicciotta has a team-high 2 interceptions.

Duke Blue Devils @ Virginia Cavaliers Betting Trends: Conference Championships

Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win

• Duke has lost each of its last 10 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Virginia has won nine of its last 10 games.
• Virginia has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games against Duke.
• Duke has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• Virginia has won the first quarter in eight of its last nine games against conference opponents.
• Virginia has won the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.

Why the Duke Blue Devils will win

• The underdog has won four of Duke’s last six games.
• Virginia has lost each of its last three games at neutral venues.
• Virginia has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as a favorite against teams from North Carolina.
• Duke has covered the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog in North Carolina.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Duke’s last eight games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of Virginia’s last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Virginia Cavaliers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the Conference Championships, Daniel Sparks ranks 6th amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (47.3) this season.

Duke Blue Devils Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the Conference Championships, Darian Mensah is one of only two players in the league to record two or more passing touchdowns in nine consecutive appearances this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Virginia has played in the equal-highest number of games that went to overtime this season (3).
• Virginia ranks T8th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (2.3).
• Duke ranks 4th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (73.5).
• Duke ranks 131st among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (273.3).

Duke vs Virginia Prediction

In this Duke vs Virginia Prediction, Virginia is coming as -3.5-point home favorites. Virginia had a better overall record in the regular season and was almost perfect at home, with just one loss in seven games played. They were also very strong against the spread with an 8-4 record, while Duke was just 5-6. Virginia has a superior defense this season, as they allow 9.4 points per game less than Duke and they destroyed Duke in their previous meeting this season by 34-17 on the road. I expect them to repeat that today, so take Virginia and lay the short number at home.